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indications of a slowing down of the THC. If so, they may conclude that mitigation efforts,
even very ambitious ones, would be futile in preventing a disruption of the THC.
Governments may be more open to mitigation strategies if they were persuaded that
abrupt climate change is unlikely in the next few decades, but a distinct possibility, if not a
probability, in a century or two. However, policy makers tend to discount risks in the
distant future that might be altered by intervening developments. Furthermore, they will be
predictably reluctant to invest heavily in costly programs in the short-run that have an
uncertain payoff well past their tenures in office, and even lifetimes. They may also decide
against taking preventive action on grounds that a significant cooling at some point in the
future would be a welcome development that would counteract the adverse impacts of
decades of global warming.
Prospects for Anticipatory Adaptations to Abrupt Climate Change. If warnings of abrupt
climate change in either the near or distant future are unlikely to stimulate more ambitious
efforts to cut back drastically on emissions of GHGs, how likely is it that nations, either on
their own or collectively, will take steps to prepare their populations for sharp changes in
climatic conditions? In contrast to a mitigation strategy, which to be successful requires
almost universal international cooperation among major emitting nations--an unlikely
prospect, states can undertake anticipatory actions on their own that could significantly
increase the capacities of their populations to adapt to the impacts of sharp climate
changes. From a political standpoint, unilaterally taken adaptive steps that benefit a
nation’s population directly and exclusively are likely to enjoy more public support than
proposals for making substantial sacrifices to an international mitigation scheme designed
Convention