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Victory and Defeat in International Relations
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In order to determine if people’s judgments of victory reflect the battlefield outcome, we need areasonably objective way of measuring the battlefield result. This is the main purpose of aFramework 1 Scorekeeping analysis. Its elements, shown in Figure 2, are:
1. Firstly, Framework 1 records a balance sheet of tangible material gains and losses, such
as territory and casualties, other material exchanges, and future military and diplomaticcommitments;
2. Secondly, Framework 1 recognizes an additional metric that measures whether each side
achieved their material aims.
Figure 2. Framework 1: ‘Score-keeping’. Information from the battlefield result is used toevaluate the victor and the defeated on the basis of material gains and losses, and theachievement of material aims.
Battlefield result
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Material changes
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Aims achieved
Judgment of
victory
It is essential to separately consider both material changes, and whether these changescorresponded with the respective leader’s aims. If you win X, but wanted Y, does it stillconstitute a battlefield victory? This clearly depends on other aspects of the outcome. A situationwhere a state achieved its material aims, yet emerged with substantial overall material losses,could only be described as an ambiguous victory. Similarly, achieving even substantial gains, butfailing to realize one’s basic aims would at best represent an unclear result. In reality, materialgains and the achievement of aims often converge to provide the same conclusions about whichside won and lost, since it is these material changes which tend to be the principal issues at stakein international crises and wars.
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| | Authors: Tierney, Dominic. |
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19
In order to determine if people’s judgments of victory reflect the battlefield outcome, we need a reasonably objective way of measuring the battlefield result. This is the main purpose of a Framework 1 Scorekeeping analysis. Its elements, shown in Figure 2, are:
1. Firstly, Framework 1 records a balance sheet of tangible material gains and losses, such
as territory and casualties, other material exchanges, and future military and diplomatic commitments;
2. Secondly, Framework 1 recognizes an additional metric that measures whether each side
achieved their material aims.
Figure 2. Framework 1: ‘Score-keeping’. Information from the battlefield result is used to evaluate the victor and the defeated on the basis of material gains and losses, and the achievement of material aims.
Battlefield result
•
Material changes
•
Aims achieved
Judgment of
victory
It is essential to separately consider both material changes, and whether these changes corresponded with the respective leader’s aims. If you win X, but wanted Y, does it still constitute a battlefield victory? This clearly depends on other aspects of the outcome. A situation where a state achieved its material aims, yet emerged with substantial overall material losses, could only be described as an ambiguous victory. Similarly, achieving even substantial gains, but failing to realize one’s basic aims would at best represent an unclear result. In reality, material gains and the achievement of aims often converge to provide the same conclusions about which side won and lost, since it is these material changes which tend to be the principal issues at stake in international crises and wars.
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