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Victory and Defeat in International Relations
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NTRODUCTION
Victory always starts in the head. It's a state of mind. It then spreads withsuch radiance and such affirmations that destiny can do nothing but obey.
Douchan Gersi
Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.
John F. Kennedy
At 10:50 p.m. on 30 April 1945, the Soviet flag was raised on top of the Reichstag in Berlin.
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In
a war of almost unprecedented brutality and ferocity, the Red Army had pushed the Germansback all the way from the gates of Moscow. Around the world, people saw the outcome in Berlinas representing the Soviet Union’s victory over the decimated Nazi regime. It was a classic caseof perceptions of victory being identical to the battlefield result.
But this is not how people typically judge victory. In international relations, perceptions of whogained and who lost often diverge widely from the realities on the ground. Armies can winbrilliant triumphs and their governments can nevertheless be viewed as having been defeated.Diplomats can return from crises clutching tangible gains but find the public sees events as afailure. This book dissects what psychological factors predispose leaders, media and publics toperceive outcomes as victories or defeats.
Many people’s dominant image of the U.S. intervention in Somalia in 1992-1993 is representedby the Hollywood version of events in the movie Black Hawk Down. As the popular story goes,U.S. forces were led into a purposeless Vietnam-style ‘quagmire’ war that culminated in afurious battle in downtown Mogadishu, in which eighteen U.S. rangers were killed. Black Hawkhelicopters were shot down, and one of the soldier’s corpses was dragged through the streets (anevent broadcast around the world on CNN). Ultimately, the U.S. retreated in defeat from whatmany saw as a mistaken and failed adventure.
Why have people decided that Somalia was a defeat rather than a victory, or at least a partialsuccess? This question is puzzling when we consider that the Somali intervention achieved anumber of positive results on the ground against significant challenges. In November 1992President George H. W. Bush decided, as one of his last acts in office, to send U.S. militaryforces to deliver humanitarian aid to Somalia, an impoverished state wracked by civil war andstarvation. This intervention was a huge success, now established as having saved the lives of
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The famous photograph, reprinted on the cover of this book, was a recreation of this event, occurring a day or two
later, as indicated by the fact that it is clearly daylight.
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| | Authors: Tierney, Dominic. |
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2
I
NTRODUCTION
Victory always starts in the head. It's a state of mind. It then spreads with such radiance and such affirmations that destiny can do nothing but obey.
Douchan Gersi
Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.
John F. Kennedy
At 10:50 p.m. on 30 April 1945, the Soviet flag was raised on top of the Reichstag in Berlin.
1
In
a war of almost unprecedented brutality and ferocity, the Red Army had pushed the Germans back all the way from the gates of Moscow. Around the world, people saw the outcome in Berlin as representing the Soviet Union’s victory over the decimated Nazi regime. It was a classic case of perceptions of victory being identical to the battlefield result.
But this is not how people typically judge victory. In international relations, perceptions of who gained and who lost often diverge widely from the realities on the ground. Armies can win brilliant triumphs and their governments can nevertheless be viewed as having been defeated. Diplomats can return from crises clutching tangible gains but find the public sees events as a failure. This book dissects what psychological factors predispose leaders, media and publics to perceive outcomes as victories or defeats.
Many people’s dominant image of the U.S. intervention in Somalia in 1992-1993 is represented by the Hollywood version of events in the movie Black Hawk Down. As the popular story goes, U.S. forces were led into a purposeless Vietnam-style ‘quagmire’ war that culminated in a furious battle in downtown Mogadishu, in which eighteen U.S. rangers were killed. Black Hawk helicopters were shot down, and one of the soldier’s corpses was dragged through the streets (an event broadcast around the world on CNN). Ultimately, the U.S. retreated in defeat from what many saw as a mistaken and failed adventure.
Why have people decided that Somalia was a defeat rather than a victory, or at least a partial success? This question is puzzling when we consider that the Somali intervention achieved a number of positive results on the ground against significant challenges. In November 1992 President George H. W. Bush decided, as one of his last acts in office, to send U.S. military forces to deliver humanitarian aid to Somalia, an impoverished state wracked by civil war and starvation. This intervention was a huge success, now established as having saved the lives of
1
The famous photograph, reprinted on the cover of this book, was a recreation of this event, occurring a day or two
later, as indicated by the fact that it is clearly daylight.
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