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Victory and Defeat in International Relations
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established cognitive limitations. None of this makes Framework 1 Scorekeeping a realisticmodel for explaining human evaluations much of the time. Indeed, understanding judgments ofvictory in international relations will require at least as much attention on the factors thatpredispose observers towards particular metrics and information, as on the outcome on thebattlefield. In the minds of observers, these predisposing factors often fix the match so that oneside is bound to win, to a large extent irrespective of its gains on the ground. Fortunately,psychological biases are systematic, not random, so if one can identify their known causalvariables then they yield substantial predictive power.
FRAMEWORK 2: ‘MATCH-FIXING’
If observers often fail to evaluate on the basis of a Framework 1 Scorekeeping analysis, howexactly do they evaluate? What determines their choice of metric and information? In this sectionwe build an alternative approach to understanding perceptions of victory and defeat, which wecall Framework 2, or “Match-fixing”. In contrast to Framework 1’s focus on striving for anobjective evaluation of material gains and aims achieved, Framework 2 offers a model of victoryand defeat based on real human beings whose perceptions of the world are shaped – andtherefore can be understood and predicted – by logical inferences and by well-establishedpsychological biases. Figure 5 depicts three major sets of influences on perceptions of victoryand defeat, which operate in chronological order: (1) mindsets (before the event), (2) salientevents (during the event), and (3) social pressure (before, during, and after the event). Thesevariables capture the essentials of a causal account of how perceptions of victory are formed.
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| | Authors: Tierney, Dominic. |
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29
established cognitive limitations. None of this makes Framework 1 Scorekeeping a realistic
model for explaining human evaluations much of the time. Indeed, understanding judgments of
victory in international relations will require at least as much attention on the factors that
predispose observers towards particular metrics and information, as on the outcome on the
battlefield. In the minds of observers, these predisposing factors often fix the match so that one
side is bound to win, to a large extent irrespective of its gains on the ground. Fortunately,
psychological biases are systematic, not random, so if one can identify their known causal
variables then they yield substantial predictive power.
FRAMEWORK 2: ‘MATCH-FIXING’
If observers often fail to evaluate on the basis of a Framework 1 Scorekeeping analysis, how
exactly do they evaluate? What determines their choice of metric and information? In this section
we build an alternative approach to understanding perceptions of victory and defeat, which we
call Framework 2, or “Match-fixing”. In contrast to Framework 1’s focus on striving for an
objective evaluation of material gains and aims achieved, Framework 2 offers a model of victory
and defeat based on real human beings whose perceptions of the world are shaped – and
therefore can be understood and predicted – by logical inferences and by well-established
psychological biases. Figure 5 depicts three major sets of influences on perceptions of victory
and defeat, which operate in chronological order: (1) mindsets (before the event), (2) salient
events (during the event), and (3) social pressure (before, during, and after the event). These
variables capture the essentials of a causal account of how perceptions of victory are formed.
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