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Modeling Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan's Linkage Politics: Foreign Policy Implications for China-Taiwan-U.S. Relations

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Much has been written on the triangular China-Taiwan-U.S. relations. However, scholars have not applied the Diversionary Theory in the highly salient China-Taiwan case. Orthodox Diversionary Theory argues leaders may resort international conflict when domestic political and economic situations are troublesome. Creation of explicit military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by Taiwan's leadership is deemed less likely. However, will Taipei's domestic political and economic changes lead to a better or worse relationship with Beijing? And will Taiwan's political parties' positions on cross-strait relations ensure them a ticket to the Presidency? 2004 marks an important year for the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. The ROC directly elected its President in March 2004 - the third-ever in Taiwan's history. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the election by a 0.2 percent margin. The DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) coalitions continue to divide on their positions toward the mainland China. In the meantime, Taiwan continues to experience an economic downturn. Mainland China attracts a large amount of investment from Taiwan. Taiwan's domestic unemployment rate remains high. This paper applies an altered diversionary theory to test if leaders in Taiwan use Taiwan independence as a diversion for their domestic problems during the years leading to Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. Simultaneously, it will also determine if Taiwan's position on the cross-strait relations influences competing parties' prospects for winning of the 2004 election. As a closely related actor, the U.S. has official ties and unofficial ties with China and Taiwan respectively. Taiwan's domestic political and economic changes and the subsequent influence on cross-strait relations will also influence U.S. relations with both China and Taiwan. This research will also provide foreign policy implications for the U.S. government in dealing with Beijing and Taipei.

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Name: International Studies Association
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MLA Citation:

James, Patrick. and Li, Yitan. "Modeling Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan's Linkage Politics: Foreign Policy Implications for China-Taiwan-U.S. Relations" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69878_index.html>

APA Citation:

James, P. and Li, Y. , 2005-03-05 "Modeling Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan's Linkage Politics: Foreign Policy Implications for China-Taiwan-U.S. Relations" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69878_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Much has been written on the triangular China-Taiwan-U.S. relations. However, scholars have not applied the Diversionary Theory in the highly salient China-Taiwan case. Orthodox Diversionary Theory argues leaders may resort international conflict when domestic political and economic situations are troublesome. Creation of explicit military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by Taiwan's leadership is deemed less likely. However, will Taipei's domestic political and economic changes lead to a better or worse relationship with Beijing? And will Taiwan's political parties' positions on cross-strait relations ensure them a ticket to the Presidency? 2004 marks an important year for the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. The ROC directly elected its President in March 2004 - the third-ever in Taiwan's history. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the election by a 0.2 percent margin. The DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) coalitions continue to divide on their positions toward the mainland China. In the meantime, Taiwan continues to experience an economic downturn. Mainland China attracts a large amount of investment from Taiwan. Taiwan's domestic unemployment rate remains high. This paper applies an altered diversionary theory to test if leaders in Taiwan use Taiwan independence as a diversion for their domestic problems during the years leading to Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. Simultaneously, it will also determine if Taiwan's position on the cross-strait relations influences competing parties' prospects for winning of the 2004 election. As a closely related actor, the U.S. has official ties and unofficial ties with China and Taiwan respectively. Taiwan's domestic political and economic changes and the subsequent influence on cross-strait relations will also influence U.S. relations with both China and Taiwan. This research will also provide foreign policy implications for the U.S. government in dealing with Beijing and Taipei.

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Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 30
Word count: 7786
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Modeling Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan's Linkage Politics: Foreign Policy Implications for China-Taiwan-U.S. Relations Patrick James Cooper Drury Yitan Li Political Science University of Missouri Columbia MO 65211 Prepared for delivery at the International Studies Association 2005 Annual Convention Honolulu Hawaii USA March 1-5 2005 INTRODUCTION Much has been written on the triangular and increasingly high profile China- Taiwan-U.S. relations. However scholars have yet to apply the Diversionary Theory (DT) to the highly salient China-Taiwan dyad within that more encompassing
Organization 42: 427-60. 28 Rosenau James N. (1969) Linkage Politics: Essays on the Convergence of National and International Systems. New York: Free Press. Russett Bruce M. (1990) "Economic Decline Electoral Pressure and the Initiation of Interstate Conflict." In Charles S. Gochman and Alan Ned Sabrosky eds. Prisoners of War? National-States in the Modern Era. Lexington: Lexington Books. The Republic of China Is on the Move Kwang Hwa Publishing Company 1979 Wu Hsin-hsing.(1994) Bridging the Strait Taiwan China and the


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