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Balancing in the Aftermath of the Cold War: An Answer to the Unipolar Stability Puzzle

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Abstract:

Ceteris paribus, the more a potential challenger is domestically organized like the liberal democratic hegemonic power, the United States, the less likely it is to balance American primacy. Balancing behavior is considered in this paper as continuum between low balancing and high balancing, measured from 1990 to 2003 in terms of military expenditure - i.e., the higher the military expenditure, the higher the balancing level. Following Balance of Threat theory, balancing is a function of geographical proximity, aggregate power, offensive capabilities, and offensive intentions. Controlling for the first three variables in the bilateral relations between the U.S. and the potential challengers, offensive intentions alone explain the differences in the level of balancing between challengers. The measurement of offensive intentions, though, is an unresolved problem. This paper states that offensive intentions can be considered to be a function of domestic alikeness - that is, the degree in which the potential balancer resembles US liberal democracy, a concept that draws from Democratic Peace Theory and from Hegemonic Stability Theory, as well. The idea is that those potential challengers that share US liberal and democratic domestic arrangements have little incentives to balance against US power, and therefore hardly balance US power. On the contrary, those potential challengers that have a different (not liberal and democratic) domestic arrangement are expected to highly balance US power. The findings, the fact liberal democracies not only do not fight each other, but they balance each other to a lesser extent, are consistent with the hypothesis. Also they point to the fact that the more liberal democracies we have in the international system, the more stable the current distribution of power will be. Finally, it opens the possibility to extend the universe of cases against which IR scholars have tested Democratic Peace Theory, addressing the small-N problem that this theory faces.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

balanc (115), power (79), liber (66), state (64), intern (60), challeng (48), democrat (47), potenti (46), us (43), war (41), behavior (38), variabl (34), theori (34), peac (34), polit (33), democraci (33), hegemon (31), confer (27), isa (27), garc (27), system (27),

Author's Keywords:

Unipolar stability, balancing, Balance of Threat (Offensive Intentions),Democratic Peace
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Name: International Studies Association
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García Iommi, Lucrecia. "Balancing in the Aftermath of the Cold War: An Answer to the Unipolar Stability Puzzle" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69948_index.html>

APA Citation:

García Iommi, L. , 2005-03-05 "Balancing in the Aftermath of the Cold War: An Answer to the Unipolar Stability Puzzle" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69948_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Ceteris paribus, the more a potential challenger is domestically organized like the liberal democratic hegemonic power, the United States, the less likely it is to balance American primacy. Balancing behavior is considered in this paper as continuum between low balancing and high balancing, measured from 1990 to 2003 in terms of military expenditure - i.e., the higher the military expenditure, the higher the balancing level. Following Balance of Threat theory, balancing is a function of geographical proximity, aggregate power, offensive capabilities, and offensive intentions. Controlling for the first three variables in the bilateral relations between the U.S. and the potential challengers, offensive intentions alone explain the differences in the level of balancing between challengers. The measurement of offensive intentions, though, is an unresolved problem. This paper states that offensive intentions can be considered to be a function of domestic alikeness - that is, the degree in which the potential balancer resembles US liberal democracy, a concept that draws from Democratic Peace Theory and from Hegemonic Stability Theory, as well. The idea is that those potential challengers that share US liberal and democratic domestic arrangements have little incentives to balance against US power, and therefore hardly balance US power. On the contrary, those potential challengers that have a different (not liberal and democratic) domestic arrangement are expected to highly balance US power. The findings, the fact liberal democracies not only do not fight each other, but they balance each other to a lesser extent, are consistent with the hypothesis. Also they point to the fact that the more liberal democracies we have in the international system, the more stable the current distribution of power will be. Finally, it opens the possibility to extend the universe of cases against which IR scholars have tested Democratic Peace Theory, addressing the small-N problem that this theory faces.

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Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 27
Word count: 7826
Text sample:
Lucrecia García Iommi ISA 2005Annual Conference Balancing in the Aftermath of the Cold War An Answer to the Unipolar Stability Puzzle A stable unipolar system greatly conflicts with the predictions of the Neorealist School. The systemic approach of Balance of Power theory does not explain the stability of the unipolar world or the current pattern of balancing behavior. On the other hand Balance of Threat theory which moves to the state level has a stronger explanatory power particularly through
Security Vol. 9 No. 4 (Spring). Waltz Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading Massachusetts/ Menlo Park California: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Waltz Kenneth N. 2000. Structural Realism after the Cold War International Security Vol. 25 No. 1 (Summer). Wohlforth William C. 1994/95. Realism and the End of the Cold War International Security Vol. 19 No. 3 (Winter). 26 Lucrecia García Iommi ISA 2005Annual Conference Wohlforth William C. 1999. The Stability of a Unipolar World International Security Vol. 24


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Why the International System is closer to a Liberal Domestic Process than we think; or the Flawed Premises of Democratic Peace Theory and of its Realist Critics

Does Democratic Peace Theory Better Than the Power Transition Theory in Explaining International Security?


 
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