Implications for Path Dependence and Japan’s Role as a Late Mover
Table 1 summarizes the preceding points and the implications for institutional
path dependence and Japan’s efforts to exert greater leadership in each institution. The
conditions underpinning balance of payments lending are conducive to greater network
externalities and lower transportability of benefits compared to development lending.
Consequently, the IMF is predicted to be characterized by greater institutional path
dependence compared to the World Bank. Institutional alternatives to the World Bank
are more credible, and in turn, greater leveraged pressure will be exerted on the
institution to adapt to shifts in the international system. As a late entrant, Japan’s
attempts to increase leadership and influence are more likely to succeed in the World
Bank rather than the IMF for precisely the same reasons. These propositions will be
examined in light of the empirical evidence in the following section.
IV. Empirical Examination
The empirical examination of the theoretical propositions described above will be
conducted in three parts. First, I will analyze quantitative evidence related to quota
shares and formal voting power in the IMF and World banks as well as recent statistical
studies of national influence in the IMF. A more qualitative examination of Japanese
efforts to increase influence in each institution during the past few decades will follow.
Finally, I will present a case study based on Japan’s proposals for regional alternatives in
each institutional area. Evidence from each of these subsections support my hypothesis
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Convention