(Page 1 of 16) - A Canonical Theory of Origins and Development of Sociopolitical Complexity in World Historical Systems authored by Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio.

ISA 2005, Hawaii

A Canonical Theory Of Origins and Development of Social Complexity

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla

George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA

The puzzle of origins and future of government and social complexity in human and social
dynamics—arguably a characteristic feature of the emergence and long-term evolution of hierarchy
and power in the history of civilizations—is an enduring topic that has challenged political
scientists, anthropological archaeologists, and other social scientists and historians. This paper
proposes a new computational theory for the emergence of social complexity that accounts for the
earliest formation of systems of government (pristine polities) in prehistory and early antiquity, as
well as present and future political development. This general social theory is based on a “fast
process” of crisis and opportunistic decision-making through collective action, which feeds a “slow”
process of political development or decay. The “fast” core iterative process is “canonical”, in the
sense that it undergoes variations on a recurring theme of signal detection, information-processing,
problem-solving, successful adaptation and occasional failure. When a group is successful in
managing or overcoming serious situational changes (stresses or opportunities, endogenous or
exogenous, social or physical) a probabilistic phase transition may occur, under a specified set of
conditions, yielding along-term (“slow”) probabilistic accrual process of emergent sociopolitical
complexity and development. A reverse process may account for decay. The canonical theory is
being formally implemented through the “PoliGen” agent-based model (ABM), based on the new
Multi-Agent Simulator of Networks and Neighborhoods (MASON). Empirically, the theory is
testable with the datasets on polities developed by the Long-Range Analysis of War (LORANOW)
Project. This paper focuses on the concepts, mechanisms, and basic formal structure that constitute
the canonical theory and inform the subsequent simulation model.

The Puzzle of Earliest Government Formation

When, where, and how did the earliest systems of government—eventually producing “high
civilization”—emerge in human history? How did previously non-hierarchical and non-sedentary
human groups and social networks (nomadic hunter-gatherers) form the first ranked societies with
increasingly complex and specialized institutions of government? Why did some groups form
complex systems of government while others did not? Why did some groups maintain momentum
towards increasingly complex societies, producing multicultural empires, while others lost ground or
were eliminated? How can social scientific knowledge about the origins of social complexity be
used to advance our understanding of the present and the future?

These and similar puzzles about the origins of government in human and social dynamics have

been investigated by social scientists for a long time. Whereas political science led in this effort
earlier in this century (e.g., Austin 1893; Schuman 1933: 1-27), it was anthropological archaeology
that for many decades advanced most of the important contributions in this area,

until the more

Address correspondence to Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Center for Social Complexity, George Mason University, Fairfax,

VA 22030, USA. E-mail:

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Excellent recent surveys on the origins of social complexity in West Asia and East Asia are found in Feinman and

Marcus (1998), Liu (2004), Loewe & Shaughnessy (1999), and Rothman (2001).