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A Canonical Theory of Origins and Development of Sociopolitical Complexity in World Historical Systems
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A Canonical Theory of Origins
51
This signal detection phase in the process of sociopolitical development is commonly ignored in extant models (even in mainstream collective action theory), where it is just assumed that somehow collective action needs always will be correctly perceived and understood. Numerous empirical cases highlight the need for making signal detection explicit in any viable theory of social complexity. For instance, Maya society during the Classic period never realized the gravity of their perilous environmental and political situation before undergoing the 9
th
century collapse (Webster
2003). Similarly, numerous early communities around the world—some would argue even today—have disappeared due to this type of compound failure in perception and understanding of persistent situational change. Clearly, empirical and theoretical science (both natural and social) play a central role in increasing the probability of proper detection and understanding of situational changes—both exogenous and endogenous.
Phase IV: Collective action (event U). When a society correctly perceives and understands a
given situational change, it may or may not be willing and able to undertake collective action (U) in response to such a change. Sometimes group members fail to undertake collective action (~U), even when they grasp the situation, because solving collective action problems is generally not trivial, in which case the society will either be destroyed (X) if the situational change persists, or the society will persist with its status quo without further political development (E). Typical examples of the former are (1) when a local group fails to undertake proper defensive measures when subject to outside aggression (Carneiro 1970), or (2) when a society—even global society today— fails to coordinate collective response in light of some serious environmental threat to common pool resources (CPR; Ostrom 1990).
How does collective action occur? In this theory collective action is assumed to occur through a
variety of mechanisms (Lichbach 1996) that are used in detail to model the occurrence of event U in Figure 2. Mainly, collective action is based on coordinated behavior on the part of leaders and followers, as detailed by the conditional success tree in Figure 5. Alternatively, the event U can be modeled by a different structure function ψ′ based on Lichbach’s four solutions to collective action problems (Market, Community, Contract, Hierarchy). The model in Figure 5 assumes that leaders and followers employ one or more of these strategies. In this case the conjunction is again modeled sequentially (Boolean seq-AND connectors in Figure 5) because for followers to follow first there must be leaders. In turn, both leaders and followers must be able and willing to undertake collective action, again based on sequential conjunction. These modeling assumptions are based on opportunity-willingness principles, where the opportunity is usually a state of Nature produced by a lottery, whereas willingness is always produced by a human choice.
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The opportunity-willingness principle is discussed in detail in Starr (1978), based on Sprout and Sprout (1969). See
also Cioffi-Revilla and Starr (1996), Most and Starr (1989, ch. 2), and Russett and Starr (1996, 19–22). An equivalent perspective on the set of conditions that are minimally necessary for political action is developed by Elster (1993, 162–79), based on Tocqueville’s theory of desires and opportunity, and Wendt (1987), using the structure-agent distinction.
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| | Authors: Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio. |
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A Canonical Theory of Origins
51
This signal detection phase in the process of sociopolitical development is commonly ignored in
extant models (even in mainstream collective action theory), where it is just assumed that somehow
collective action needs always will be correctly perceived and understood. Numerous empirical
cases highlight the need for making signal detection explicit in any viable theory of social
complexity. For instance, Maya society during the Classic period never realized the gravity of their
perilous environmental and political situation before undergoing the 9
th
century collapse (Webster
2003). Similarly, numerous early communities around the world—some would argue even today—
have disappeared due to this type of compound failure in perception and understanding of persistent
situational change. Clearly, empirical and theoretical science (both natural and social) play a central
role in increasing the probability of proper detection and understanding of situational changes—both
exogenous and endogenous.
Phase IV: Collective action (event U). When a society correctly perceives and understands a
given situational change, it may or may not be willing and able to undertake collective action (U) in
response to such a change. Sometimes group members fail to undertake collective action (~U), even
when they grasp the situation, because solving collective action problems is generally not trivial, in
which case the society will either be destroyed (X) if the situational change persists, or the society
will persist with its status quo without further political development (E). Typical examples of the
former are (1) when a local group fails to undertake proper defensive measures when subject to
outside aggression (Carneiro 1970), or (2) when a society—even global society today— fails to
coordinate collective response in light of some serious environmental threat to common pool
resources (CPR; Ostrom 1990).
How does collective action occur? In this theory collective action is assumed to occur through a
variety of mechanisms (Lichbach 1996) that are used in detail to model the occurrence of event U in
Figure 2. Mainly, collective action is based on coordinated behavior on the part of leaders and
followers, as detailed by the conditional success tree in Figure 5. Alternatively, the event U can be
modeled by a different structure function ψ′ based on Lichbach’s four solutions to collective action
problems (Market, Community, Contract, Hierarchy). The model in Figure 5 assumes that leaders
and followers employ one or more of these strategies. In this case the conjunction is again modeled
sequentially (Boolean seq-AND connectors in Figure 5) because for followers to follow first there
must be leaders. In turn, both leaders and followers must be able and willing to undertake collective
action, again based on sequential conjunction. These modeling assumptions are based on
opportunity-willingness principles, where the opportunity is usually a state of Nature produced by a
lottery, whereas willingness is always produced by a human choice.
6
6
The opportunity-willingness principle is discussed in detail in Starr (1978), based on Sprout and Sprout (1969). See
also Cioffi-Revilla and Starr (1996), Most and Starr (1989, ch. 2), and Russett and Starr (1996, 19–22). An equivalent
perspective on the set of conditions that are minimally necessary for political action is developed by Elster (1993,
162–79), based on Tocqueville’s theory of desires and opportunity, and Wendt (1987), using the structure-agent
distinction.
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