Since it can be considered a distinctive sub-system within international politics, South
America’s Southern Cone provides a particularly suitable testing ground for balance of
power theory. And since in the last few decades it has had consistent patterns of regime
change (the last one of which Democratic Peace theorists characterize as a transition from
authoritarian rule to democracy), it seems to provide a suitable testing ground for
Democratic Peace theory.
From a balance of power perspective, given the distribution of capabilities among the
countries of the region (whose major states have tended to coalesce in two informal
alliances with the ability to countervail one another’s power) and the geopolitical setting in
which they interact (i.e., conditions that gave the defense a significant advantage in case of
war), the Southern Cone could be expected to be among the most stable and peaceful areas
of the world. In fact, it is. Thus, we may be entitled to claim that we know why war has not
been a pervasive phenomenon within this region.
Unfortunately, an explanation of what did not happen is not enough to understand inter-
state politics in the Southern Cone during the last few decades. And a balance of power
perspective does not provide a particularly compelling explanation for what really did
happen, which was that patterns of inter-state conflict and cooperation did change
significantly with changes in regime type, despite a relatively stable distribution of power.
During most of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s, authoritarian regimes prevailed
within this region. Since 1990 all of the Southern Cone countries have been under the rule
of democratically elected leaders. While during the first period regional politics were
conflict prone and cooperation was negligible, since 1990 conflicts of interests have been
addressed (and eventually solved) through peaceful means
6
, and regional cooperation has
the nature of the units that compose it (i.e., by changes in regime type that would make most, if not
all, states in the world liberal democracies).
6
The Peace Treaty that settled the dispute between Chile and Argentina over the Beagle
channel was signed in 1987, during Pinochet’s regime. However, a full normalization of their
bilateral relations did not take place until accords were reached to settle other demarcation disputes
in 1991.
Peru and Ecuador settled their border disputes through the “Presidential Act of Brasilia”, signed in
October 1998, which constituted “formal evidence of the definitive termination of the differences
that for decades separated their two nations”.
Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores del Perú; Página Web: www.rree.gob.pe/ ing/ polexter/
peruecu/point9
Convention