9
9
opinion expresses skepticism about the utility of military force for fighting terrorism,
countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or promoting democracy.
Finally, coexisting with this belief is high and stable support for the dispatch of
the SDF overseas for humanitarian and reconstruction projects.
This reflects support for
the “internationalization” of what many Japanese have regarded the SDF as being: a
disaster relief organization.
Ironically, support for SDF overseas dispatches reflects the
belief that non-military solutions have the highest utility for conflict resolution and
tamping down terrorism.
One caveat is in order: the conclusions I am drawing about Japanese public
opinion reflect opinion at the aggregate level of opinion as measured by opinion polls.
I
am not claiming that all or even most Japanese hold beliefs that approximate “defensive
realist” views.
Rather, Japanese opinion is composed of distinguishable groups: pacifists
who are in decline yet continue to exert influence, a small group of hawks who are
relatively optimistic about the utility of military force, and centrists.
It is the aggregated
views of all these groups that this paper claims approximates defensive realism.
Hypotheses and Polling Data
Hypothesis #1: Rather than opposing all wars, the Japanese public now
distinguishes between wars justified for national defense against an imminent threat
versus wars fought for other purposes.
Asahi Shimbun:
Japanese Support for the War in Iraq
Support for Afghan War
Convention