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Can Events Data Analysis be Overcome By Events? |
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Abstract:
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We hear, ad nauseum, that 9/11 changed everything. We grow old. Issues change or go away. Policies shift. Governments change. Situations get better or worse. Peace breaks out or violence escalates. Events change things -- why else would we study them? The question to be examined here is -- Do these, or some of these, events significantly change the nature of the events themselves? -- Thereby negating the applicability of previous scholarship and foreign policy experience. Over 20 years ago, I began a series of investigations into the nature of anti-foreign demonstrations, I was able create a paradigm which distinguished among these events on two dimensions with over 80 significant (p<0.00005) findings. These earlier studies were based upon a rather detailed data set limited to Asia. Asia was chosen for the data population because of the region's broad range of political, economic and cultural values. This study proposes to test the earlier findings two ways. The first is to trace the progress of the actors and the issues that were identified in the earlier studies in an effort to note significant changes at several levels and to determine how well the earlier findings travel. Second, this study will present a less detailed but broader (world-wide) and updated data set with which we will be able to test the paradigm on the post Cold War (and post 9/11) world stage. The range of possible findings is rather broad. On one hand, the earlier model may remain valid. On the other hand, I may just have to accept the idea that the earlier studies, no matter how strong the findings, are just works of late 20th Century history. Between these extremes the study may identify which could strengthen earlier findings, give direction to future studies and provide insight into subnational conflict. |
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demonstr (105), event (81), govern (72), afd (53), studi (48), issu (46), host (44), nation (41), us (40), tend (40), intern (38), target (38), would (37), war (35), data (34), polici (32), relationship (31), countri (30), anti (27), type (25), regim (25), |
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Association:
Name: International Studies Association URL: http://www.isanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Johnson, Stewart. "Can Events Data Analysis be Overcome By Events?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p71339_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Johnson, S. S. , 2005-03-05 "Can Events Data Analysis be Overcome By Events?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p71339_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: We hear, ad nauseum, that 9/11 changed everything. We grow old. Issues change or go away. Policies shift. Governments change. Situations get better or worse. Peace breaks out or violence escalates. Events change things -- why else would we study them? The question to be examined here is -- Do these, or some of these, events significantly change the nature of the events themselves? -- Thereby negating the applicability of previous scholarship and foreign policy experience. Over 20 years ago, I began a series of investigations into the nature of anti-foreign demonstrations, I was able create a paradigm which distinguished among these events on two dimensions with over 80 significant (p<0.00005) findings. These earlier studies were based upon a rather detailed data set limited to Asia. Asia was chosen for the data population because of the region's broad range of political, economic and cultural values. This study proposes to test the earlier findings two ways. The first is to trace the progress of the actors and the issues that were identified in the earlier studies in an effort to note significant changes at several levels and to determine how well the earlier findings travel. Second, this study will present a less detailed but broader (world-wide) and updated data set with which we will be able to test the paradigm on the post Cold War (and post 9/11) world stage. The range of possible findings is rather broad. On one hand, the earlier model may remain valid. On the other hand, I may just have to accept the idea that the earlier studies, no matter how strong the findings, are just works of late 20th Century history. Between these extremes the study may identify which could strengthen earlier findings, give direction to future studies and provide insight into subnational conflict. |
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| Document Type: |
.PDF |
| Page count: |
13 |
| Word count: |
7068 |
| Text sample: |
| Can Events Data Analysis be OVERCOME BY EVENTS? Stewart S. Johnson California State University Los Angeles A paper prepared for the Annual Conference of the International Studies Association February 28 to March 5 2005 Honolulu 2 Overcome By Events Stewart S. Johnson California State University LA We hear ad nauseam that "9/11 changed everything " to the point where it has become a common excuse for current policy makers to dismiss years of foreign policy scholarship and experience. Although |
| government response to include: violence arrests and the deployment of special police forces -- involve death. -- Extra-national issue/government agreement events (38 cases) tend to: -- occur during a host government purge -- occur in response to an incident -- target countries not on friendly terms with the host government -- have demonstrators from the general population and have government and military organization -- have large populations. -- Extra-national issue/ government disagreement events tend to: -- occur in a |
Similar Titles:
Corporate Social Responsibility - Linking National Policy Regimes and International Governance
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