5
immediate or gradual withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet would have been an important
step toward forcing ethnic Russians in the Crimea to deal with the fact that they were not citizens
of Russia or the former Soviet Union. The continued presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at
minimum becomes a psychological blanket for ethnic Russians advocating their separateness
within Ukraine, outright independence or reunification with Russia. The agreements provide
Russia a chance to continue or extend its influence over other regions of Ukraine that are
sympathetic to Russia.
15
The Countries as Case Studies
The issue of how states come to realize their national interests is an important matter to
investigate. Estonia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine offer important case studies. The selection of
these countries was based on the fact that each faced similar conditions and decisions. All three
countries faced similar decisions. The selection of Estonia was not based simply on the fact it
pursued a radically different national security strategy. When its domestic economic and
demographic profile is compared to the profiles of Kazakhstan and Ukraine, its decision appear
even more puzzling. Estonia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were highly similar in ways that the other
former Soviet republics were not. The three countries experienced similar economic and
demographic pressures, and were subject to intense domestic and foreign, particularly Russian,
economic pressure. Any combination of these forces could have impacted the decision-making
process in a way that produced similar decisions.
Convention