8
energy dependent on Russia, which was not reluctant to use this to its advantage. Energy-rich
Kazakhstan was importing electrical power, oil, and gas to meet its energy needs, and it fell into
debt to Russia for these supplies in the first years of independence.
22
On paper, Ukraine was
highly dependent on Russia for its natural gas and oil supplies. It is reasonable to assume that
Kazakhstan and Ukraine understood that Russia could apply sufficient political and economic
pressure to achieve the results it wanted. All three countries risked losing access to the Russian
market and favorable terms for energy supplies.
Although each country had an economic incentive to cooperate with Russia, economic
factors also offer an insufficient comparative explanation of the decisions. At the time,
Kazakhstan did not have either the technical or financial resources to operate the cosmodrome by
itself.
23
However, this does not mean that it would not have the means to operate Baikonur in the
future, nor does it mean that it had to sign an exclusive agreement with Russia for such a long
period. There were economic advantages in leasing the facility to Russia, but Kazakhstan is an
energy-rich country that has attracted a high level of foreign investment. If any country had the
opportunity to distance itself from Russia, it was Kazakhstan. Furthermore, if the $115 million
yearly payment Kazakhstan received was important, then why did Estonia not secure a similar
agreement with Russia? Finally, even if thousands of Kazakhs depended on Baikonur for a
living, why did Estonia not realize Russian bases would have produced jobs for its citizens?
24
Similarly, one leading study of Ukrainian foreign policy emphasized the economic aspect of the
decision to lease the Black Sea Fleet.
25
However, the author did not establish a direct link
between energy dependence and the Black Sea Fleet agreement, and she undermined her own
argument by acknowledging that Ukraine’s energy situation is not simply one of dependence on
Russia. Russia supplied Ukraine with nearly 70% of its crude oil and more than 48% of its
Convention