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TRANSNATIONAL REBELS: NEIGHBORING STATES AS
SANCTUARY FOR REBEL GROUPS
Idean Salehyan, PhD Candidate
Department of Political Science
University of California, San Diego
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Paper Presented at the 2005 International Studies Association Annual Convention
Honolulu, Hawaii
March 1-5, 2005
Abstract. To what extent to international factors affect domestic conflict processes? How do
external conditions affect the state’s repressive capabilities and the opportunities for opposition
groups to mobilize, launch, and sustain an insurgency? This paper argues that state strength is
limited by international boundaries and that transnationally organized rebel groups can evade
repression costs. External bases, refugee communities, and characteristics of neighboring states
are expected to increase the likelihood of civil war onset and continuation. These claims are
tested through a quantitative analysis of civil conflicts during the 1951-2000 period.
Acknowledgements
: Travel funding was provided by the Rohr Chair in Pacific International
Relations. I thank Miles Kahler for his support. I also thank Barbara Walter and Kristian
Gleditsch for their comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are my own.
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