9
Neighboring Country Conditions
Oppressive governments and civil conflict are likely to cause substantial migration outflows
(Davenport, Moore, and Poe 2003; Schmeidl 1997). Most refugees, furthermore, first flee over
land boundaries to nearby countries (US Committee for Refugees various years). International
migration and diasporic communities imply that not all politically-relevant populations reside
within the borders of the state, where they are subject to the state’s laws and policing efforts.
Refugees in particular exit the state because of a direct experience of persecution or political
violence and therefore have a strong motive to oppose the regime from which they fled.
Refugees living in squalid camp conditions across the border, moreover, have very low
opportunity costs for joining rebel organizations. Thus, Albert O. Hirschman’s (1970) classic
distinction between “exit” and “voice,” therefore, is not as clear-cut as is often believed. Rather
than exit and voice being mutually exclusive responses to discontent, refugee communities may
continue to be active in their opposition to their home country (Shain 1989; Weiner 1992-1993;
Zolberg, Suhrke, and Aguayo 1989). As such, refugee encampments are often used by rebel
groups as a ready source of recruits, supplies, and shelter (Lischer 2003; Stedman and Tanner
2003); these camps may serve a double-purpose as extraterritorial bases for armed factions.
While refugees are often viewed as the unfortunate victims of conflict (and I do not deny the
humanitarian disaster of refugee migration), they may also contribute to conflict in their
homelands.
This “refugee warrior” phenomenon is evident in several cases. During the Cold War
Era, Afghan refugees in Pakistan formed armed factions; the Nicaraguan Contras actively sought
recruits in refugee camps in Honduras; and Cuban exiles in the US launched the Bay of Pigs
Convention