|
Civil War
T
able
4:
Reduced-form
equations
In
t’l
Conflict
Civil
W
ar
Loss
of
Office
mean
2.5%
97.5%
mean
2.5%
97.5%
mean
2.5%
97.5%
Mixed
Regime
0
.
075
−
0
.
076
0
.
233
0
.
279
0
.
077
0
.
479
0
.
437
0
.
326
0
.
551
P
arl.
Demo
c.
−
0
.
198
−
0
.
444
0
.
053
−
0
.
504
−
0
.
971
−
0
.
062
0
.
566
0
.
405
0
.
723
Pres.
Demo
c.
−
0
.
010
−
0
.
243
0
.
234
−
0
.
186
−
0
.
580
0
.
192
0
.
416
0
.
262
0
.
564
Econ.
dev
elopmen
t
0
.
022
−
0
.
018
0
.
064
0
.
035
−
0
.
022
0
.
100
0
.
016
−
0
.
013
0
.
046
Change
in
econ.
dev
elop.
−
0
.
049
−
0
.
247
0
.
147
0
.
057
−
0
.
167
0
.
269
−
0
.
197
−
0
.
344
−
0
.
043
T
rade
op
enness
0
.
039
−
0
.
010
0
.
094
0
.
009
−
0
.
068
0
.
090
0
.
026
−
0
.
008
0
.
062
Change
in
trade
op
en.
−
0
.
005
−
0
.
162
0
.
151
0
.
009
−
0
.
164
0
.
177
−
0
.
200
−
0
.
327
−
0
.
062
P
opulation
0
.
075
0
.
018
0
.
135
0
.
116
0
.
018
0
.
218
−
0
.
001
−
0
.
048
0
.
045
Military
mobil.
0
.
055
−
0
.
072
0
.
177
0
.
010
−
0
.
125
0
.
213
−
0
.
141
−
0
.
257
−
0
.
024
Num.
of
b
orders
−
0
.
021
−
0
.
053
0
.
010
0
.
034
−
0
.
020
0
.
087
0
.
017
−
0
.
008
0
.
043
Age
−
0
.
006
−
0
.
012
0
.
000
−
0
.
005
−
0
.
013
0
.
003
0
.
013
0
.
009
0
.
017
Times
in
p
o
w
er
0
.
021
−
0
.
142
0
.
182
0
.
245
0
.
060
0
.
426
−
0
.
106
−
0
.
190
−
0
.
024
Da
ys
in
office
−
0
.
042
−
0
.
108
0
.
023
0
.
069
−
0
.
018
0
.
160
−
0
.
212
−
0
.
249
−
0
.
174
Longer-than-median
−
0
.
138
−
0
.
325
0
.
031
−
0
.
012
−
0
.
252
0
.
230
0
.
655
0
.
548
0
.
764
Victory
2
.
670
2
.
389
2
.
962
1
.
132
0
.
750
1
.
489
−
1
.
475
−
1
.
780
−
1
.
159
Defeat
2
.
643
2
.
337
2
.
947
1
.
339
1
.
000
1
.
684
−
0
.
726
−
1
.
023
−
0
.
398
Dra
w
2
.
646
2
.
414
2
.
881
0
.
990
0
.
672
1
.
334
−
1
.
623
−
1
.
895
−
1
.
325
Y
outh
bulge
0
.
000
−
0
.
016
0
.
014
0
.
033
0
.
011
0
.
055
−
0
.
001
−
0
.
011
0
.
010
Da
ys
since
last
civil
w
ar
−
0
.
003
−
0
.
027
0
.
021
−
0
.
463
−
0
.
495
−
0
.
435
−
0
.
043
−
0
.
059
−
0
.
026
Da
ys
since
last
in
t’l
conf.
−
0
.
259
−
0
.
290
−
0
.
231
0
.
082
0
.
039
0
.
125
−
0
.
054
−
0
.
083
−
0
.
027
Ma
jor
p
o
w
er
−
0
.
120
−
0
.
424
0
.
193
−
0
.
267
−
1
.
009
0
.
433
0
.
201
−
0
.
070
0
.
482
Median
duration
in
office
−
0
.
008
−
0
.
023
0
.
006
−
0
.
075
−
0
.
111
−
0
.
041
−
0
.
047
−
0
.
062
−
0
.
032
Ethnic
fract.
0
.
123
−
0
.
171
0
.
449
0
.
392
−
0
.
171
0
.
920
0
.
112
−
0
.
208
0
.
421
Share
2nd
largest
group
−
0
.
244
−
0
.
981
0
.
532
−
0
.
455
−
1
.
660
0
.
681
−
0
.
094
−
0
.
711
0
.
504
Religious
fract.
0
.
029
−
0
.
279
0
.
348
0
.
251
−
0
.
268
0
.
789
−
0
.
179
−
0
.
459
0
.
102
Moun
tainous
terrain
0
.
029
−
0
.
020
0
.
078
0
.
157
0
.
075
0
.
249
0
.
029
−
0
.
012
0
.
069
Constan
t
−
1
.
917
−
2
.
175
−
1
.
676
−
2
.
789
−
3
.
192
−
2
.
418
−
1
.
077
−
1
.
266
−
0
.
900
a
Num
b
er
of
iterations:
37000;
Burn-in
phase:
7000;
Chain-thinning:
30
38
|
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