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Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War

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Abstract:

This paper presents a test of elements of Power Transition Theory (PTT) through an examination of types of demographic transitions against civil war. It divides population transitions into nine types and, from PTT logic, derives testable hypotheses. It also tests elements of PTT's rival, Balance of Power Theory (BPT). Although the logic of PTT seems appropriate to testing at the substate level, the results are mixed. Most states plagued by ethnic civil wars have stable populations (i.e. no transitions), yet three types of transitions stand out. Even here, however, PTT predicts violence in only one of these three types of transitions. BPT fares a bit better.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

war (179), group (133), state (120), power (101), civil (84), ethnic (84), transit (78), ptt (63), popul (59), major (51), minor (46), type (44), 1 (42), 2 (41), test (40), relat (38), ii (37), data (36), case (35), violenc (33), 6 (32),

Author's Keywords:

demography, population, transition, civil, intrastate, interstate, war, ethnic, identity, group, majority, minority, balance of power, power transition
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Name: International Studies Association
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MLA Citation:

Toft, Monica. "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72013_index.html>

APA Citation:

Toft, M. D. , 2005-03-05 "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Population Shifts and Civil War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72013_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper presents a test of elements of Power Transition Theory (PTT) through an examination of types of demographic transitions against civil war. It divides population transitions into nine types and, from PTT logic, derives testable hypotheses. It also tests elements of PTT's rival, Balance of Power Theory (BPT). Although the logic of PTT seems appropriate to testing at the substate level, the results are mixed. Most states plagued by ethnic civil wars have stable populations (i.e. no transitions), yet three types of transitions stand out. Even here, however, PTT predicts violence in only one of these three types of transitions. BPT fares a bit better.

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Associated Document Available International Studies Association

Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 35
Word count: 11456
Text sample:
Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Monica Duffy Toft Harvard University February 2005 Comments are welcome. Please do not cite without author's permission. Associate Professor John F. Kennedy School of Government and Assistant Director John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies 1033 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 Monica_toft@harvard.edu Prepared presentation at the International Studies Association Conference March 1-6 2005 Honolulu Hawaii. Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory Abstract: This
| 11.90 15.56 | 12.16 | 11.06 1.11 | 12.16 ------ ----- +--- ------------------- +---------- Tot al | 58 8 45 | 633 | 588.0 45.0 | 633.0 | 92.89 7.11 | 100.00 | 100.00 100.00 | 100.00 | 92.89 7.11 | 100.00 Pears on chi2 (1) = 0.5214 Pr = 0.470 Kenda ll' s ta u-b = 0.0287 ASE = 0.044 | Key | |----- ----- ---------- | | frequ ency | | expe cted frequency | 34


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