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Balance of Power Dynamics and War Escalation
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Balance of Power Dynamics
and War Escalation
D. Scott Bennett
The Pennsylvania State University
## email not listed ##
February 24, 2005
Abstract:
Although the balance of power has been examined as a cause of war perhaps more than
any other theory of international relations, previous studies of the balance have used static measurements of power which remain fixed over the course of a conflict. As a result, we still do not (and in fact, cannot) understand how dynamic shifts in the balance of power during disputes affect the escalation of disputes to war. I apply a new method to the study of dispute escalation which allows us to truly examine the dynamics of the balance of power over the course of a dispute, namely a competing risks hazard models applied to a data set constructed with time-varying covariates. I measure the balance of power in a dispute over time, constructing a new balance measurement over sub-intervals of a dispute. With this data we can correctly evaluate how changes in the balance of power lead to dispute outcomes, including whether the dispute escalates to war. The findings suggest that once dynamics in the balance of power over the course of disputes are properly measured, the balance of power does in fact affect dispute escalation. The method applied here to balance of power can be applied much more broadly to a class of similar problems, namely problems where variable values change over time within what is nominally our unit of analysis. Paper prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 4, 2005. Thanks to Faten Ghosn, Alex Braithwaite, and Kyle Joyce for their research assistance on this project
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Balance of Power Dynamics
and War Escalation
D. Scott Bennett
The Pennsylvania State University
## email not listed ##
February 24, 2005
Abstract:
Although the balance of power has been examined as a cause of war perhaps more than
any other theory of international relations, previous studies of the balance have used static
measurements of power which remain fixed over the course of a conflict. As a result, we still do
not (and in fact, cannot) understand how dynamic shifts in the balance of power during disputes
affect the escalation of disputes to war. I apply a new method to the study of dispute escalation
which allows us to truly examine the dynamics of the balance of power over the course of a
dispute, namely a competing risks hazard models applied to a data set constructed with time-
varying covariates. I measure the balance of power in a dispute over time, constructing a new
balance measurement over sub-intervals of a dispute. With this data we can correctly evaluate
how changes in the balance of power lead to dispute outcomes, including whether the dispute
escalates to war. The findings suggest that once dynamics in the balance of power over the
course of disputes are properly measured, the balance of power does in fact affect dispute
escalation. The method applied here to balance of power can be applied much more broadly to a
class of similar problems, namely problems where variable values change over time within what
is nominally our unit of analysis.
Paper prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting,
Honolulu, Hawaii, March 4, 2005. Thanks to Faten Ghosn, Alex Braithwaite, and Kyle Joyce
for their research assistance on this project
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