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Re-simulating Events Data: Massive Multiagent Computational International Relations Models from Events Data
Unformatted Document Text:  1 DRAFT Re-simulating Events Data: Massive Multiagent Computational International Relations Models from Events Data International Studies Association, Honolulu 2005 Darold Higa University of Southern California School of International Relations ## email not listed ## or ## email not listed ## DRAFT Abstract This proposal contends that Agent-Based Modeling of Complex Adaptive Systems should use rule-based decisionmaking in simulating international relationsphenomena. A distinction must be made however between adaptive and nonadaptiveemergent systems. Creating models using adaptive agents and rule-based behaviorsmakes it possible to create simulations that are driven by real-world data. In order toconstruct such a simulation, a body of rules will be extracted from an existing eventsdataset. These rules will then be used to populate the ideaspace of a massive multiagentsimulation in order to determine if the rules in turn produce patterns that the initial eventsdata describes. In effect, the events data will be re-simulated, and new virtual historieswill be created. By examining these new virtual histories, it will become possible todetermine if cognitively complex massive multiagent models are an effective means bywhich the causal processes behind events data can be examined by studying the resultingvirtual histories created in the simulation space. This process will also reinforce the ideathat the current theoretical and methodological emphasis placed on causal aggregationshould instead be shifted to disaggregating higher-order phenomena into lower-orderinteractions. Contact:Darold HigaSchool of International RelationsUniversity of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles, California Tel: 626-201-4008Email: ## email not listed ## or ## email not listed ## The struggle to define international relations theories, and in particular international relations theories that are generalizable across a large number of cases hasbeen a significant stumbling block in the effort to create a cohesive and widely acceptedpool of international relations theory. This problem is not limited to international

Authors: Higa, Darold.
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1
DRAFT
Re-simulating Events Data: Massive Multiagent Computational International
Relations Models from Events Data
International Studies Association, Honolulu 2005
Darold Higa
University of Southern California School of International Relations
## email not listed ##
or ## email not listed ##
DRAFT
Abstract
This proposal contends that Agent-Based Modeling of Complex Adaptive
Systems should use rule-based decisionmaking in simulating international relations
phenomena. A distinction must be made however between adaptive and nonadaptive
emergent systems. Creating models using adaptive agents and rule-based behaviors
makes it possible to create simulations that are driven by real-world data. In order to
construct such a simulation, a body of rules will be extracted from an existing events
dataset. These rules will then be used to populate the ideaspace of a massive multiagent
simulation in order to determine if the rules in turn produce patterns that the initial events
data describes. In effect, the events data will be re-simulated, and new virtual histories
will be created. By examining these new virtual histories, it will become possible to
determine if cognitively complex massive multiagent models are an effective means by
which the causal processes behind events data can be examined by studying the resulting
virtual histories created in the simulation space. This process will also reinforce the idea
that the current theoretical and methodological emphasis placed on causal aggregation
should instead be shifted to disaggregating higher-order phenomena into lower-order
interactions.
Contact:
Darold Higa
School of International Relations
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, California
Tel: 626-201-4008
Email:
## email not listed ##
or ## email not listed ##
The struggle to define international relations theories, and in particular
international relations theories that are generalizable across a large number of cases has
been a significant stumbling block in the effort to create a cohesive and widely accepted
pool of international relations theory. This problem is not limited to international


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