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the violent breakup of the state. As our results show, the violent secession scenario is an invitation for
future disaster. The advice to policymakers is to take a more proactive approach to address the
secessionists’ grievances who are demanding the establishment of their own state. The international
community holds the power of recognition and it can use it as leverage against both the central
government that is unwilling to compromise (i.e. threaten recognition) and secessionists who are making
unreasonable demands (i.e. withhold recognition). If pressure is put on the central government to resolve
the grievances peacefully, the secession demand may be dropped. If the demand is not dropped,
conducting the secession peacefully is preferable.