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34
Table 1: Cox Regression Estimates of Post-Secession Conflict Onset Between SISs
Variable
Model 1:
MID Onset
Model 2:
Territorial MID
Onset
Model 3:
MID Onset,
Directed Dyad
Design
Model 4:
Territorial MID
Onset, Directed
Dyad Design
Territorial
Dispute
36.844***
(.599)
1.223*
(.584)
Strategic
Territorial Dispute
-.420
(.424)
.267
(.503)
Economic
Territorial Dispute
.328
(.548)
.332
(.539)
Ethnic
Territorial Dispute
37.464***
(1.017)
1.277*
(.596)
Violent
Secession
1.027**
(.353)
1.913***
(.481)
1.335***
(.311)
1.871***
(.506)
Secessionist-Only
Dyad
-.872*
(.481)
-.802
(.509)
.115
α
(.449)
-.398
α
(.632)
Relative
Power
-.050
(.088)
-.173
(.122)
-.041
(.075)
-.026
(.110)
Allies
.153
(.309)
.140
(.301)
-.035
(.357)
.180
(.624)
Dyadic
Democracy
-.462
(.623)
-1.611*
(.880)
-.750
(.499)
-1.641*
(.740)
Contiguity
-.026
(.556)
-.383
(.431)
-.272
(.382)
-.522
(.425)
Log Likelihood
Chi-squared (d.f.)
N
-405.106
32507.100*** (7)
1551
-210.905
16870.830*** (9)
1551
-489.393
47.56*** (7)
2976
-219.244
55.19*** (9)
2976
Note: Cell entries report coefficients and robust standard errors (in parentheses). Unit of analysis is dyad-year. Each
dyad is composed of two states involved in secessions (SISs). All significance levels are one-tailed: *** p < .000;
** p < .010; * p < .050.
α
In the directed dyad design, this variable identifies the rump state.
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