Author's Keywords: Iraq democracy Polity	Convention All Academic Convention is the premier solution for your association's abstract management solutions needs. Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: International Studies Association URL: http://www.isanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72078_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Moon, Bruce. "Can Iraq Democratize? How long will it take?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72078_index.html>

Moon, B. E. , 2005-03-05 "Can Iraq Democratize? How long will it take?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72078_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Social scientists can and should address policy-relevant questions with the same rigorous methods that they routinely apply to theory testing. This paper assesses prospects for democracy in Iraq in light of the historical precedents of nations with comparable experiences. That analysis reveals that: (1) Since the end of the 19th century, only 31 nations have experienced an autocracy as extreme as Iraq’s over as long a time. (2) Only ten of those 31 have produced coherent democracies subsequently. (3) Only two of those ten is now an established democracy; the remainder’s democratic experiments are still in progress. (4) The average time required for these ten prospects to transit the path from extreme autocracy to coherent, albeit precarious, democracy has been about 50 years and only one has managed it in less than 25 years. (5) Iraq lacks the structural conditions that theory and evidence indicate have been necessary to successful democratic transitions in the past. Thus, the odds of Iraq achieving democracy in the next quarter-century are quite close to zero, at best about 1 in 31, but probably far less. The past experience of Middle Eastern countries suggests that when democracy finally comes to Iraq, few Iraqis alive today will be there to greet it. And the experience of the Soviet Union suggests that by the time democracy reaches Mesopotamia, it will no longer be Iraq.

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