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ABSTRACT
This paper evaluates the prospects for war and peace in the South Asian local
hierarchy – composed of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka -
over the next half-century. The analysis based on Power Transition theory reveals that the
South Asian local hierarchy is strongly dominated and this condition persists over the
next fifty years. India, the regional dominant nation, currently controls over seventy
percent of the resources within the hierarchy. This relative position is expected to
strengthen as India completes its demographic transition and population structures
stabilize over the next fifty years. Continued economic liberalization is most likely to
result in stronger growth, and sustained economic growth will allow India to maintain its
position as the regional dominant leader in South Asia. Power Transition analysis
suggests that the most visible conflict within this hierarchy between India and Pakistan
over the territorial status of Kashmir is not expected to escalate to major war. Agent
based analyses indicate that despite absence of major conflicts, continuous confrontation
on a smaller scale is likely to occur. From India’s perspective, Kashmir is an internal
matter that can be settled through greater autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir falling short
of independence. This structural characterization of the South Asian hierarchy also
suggests that, given the resolution of current conflicts, increased cooperation among the
constituents within this hierarchy can eventually lead to integration, as currently seen in
the European Union.
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