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LATIN RHYTHMS: COUP CYCLES IN THEAMERICAS

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Abstract:

From the 1820s into the 1970s,
the coup d’etat, or golpe de estado, was a regular feature in Latin
America, with military overthrows of government occurring more or less
annually (Dean, 1970; Needler, 1975; Thompson, 1975). The onset of the
‘third wave of democracy’ in 1978 and the adoption of democratic forms
of governance across most of the region, however, appeared to put an
end to decades of praetorianism and political instability. Although
scholars and policymakers alike turned their attention to issues of
democratic consolidation, the region continued to experience coups and
coup attempts throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s. While the focus on
democratic consolidation is understandable and necessary, a complete
understanding of political phenomena in the region must include
attention to coup activity over time. We suggest that coup activity has
not received adequate scholarly attention. We offer that a thorough
statistical analysis over an extended time series (1950-2000) provides
an ideal means to test hypotheses about the periodicity of coup
behavior. Specifically, we draw on previous studies and posit four
alternative trajectories of Latin American coups: steady, increasing,
decreasing, and decreasing with a cycle (see Dean 1970; Dix 1994;
Fossum 1970; Needler 1968; Nordlinger 1975; Putnam 1967; Wiarda 1978).
We model the structural time dynamics of coup behavior across nineteen
countries, from 1950-2000, using regression techniques, ARIMA modeling,
smoothing techniques, and spectral analysis. The results demonstrate
quite clearly that coup activity remains vigorous. What is more, that
activity manifests itself, to an important degree, in predictable
patterns, or cycles. Our main findings contradict the bulk of the
scholarship on this question, including some of the most recent
contributions. Results of our analysis have nontrivial implications for
the understanding of political phenomena in the region, including
political stability during the ‘third wave’ of democracy.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

coup (255), attempt (89), time (55), 1 (51), latin (44), figur (43), 2 (39), 19 (38), activ (37), america (33), year (31), two (28), militari (28), data (28), 4 (28), seri (27), one (26), 3 (26), analysi (25), polit (25), signific (24),
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
URL:
http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


Citation:
URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p83681_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Moreno, Erika., Lewis-Beck, Michael. and Amoureux, Jacque. "LATIN RHYTHMS: COUP CYCLES IN THEAMERICAS" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 15, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p83681_index.html>

APA Citation:

Moreno, E. , Lewis-Beck, M. and Amoureux, J. , 2004-04-15 "LATIN RHYTHMS: COUP CYCLES IN THEAMERICAS" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p83681_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: From the 1820s into the 1970s,
the coup d’etat, or golpe de estado, was a regular feature in Latin
America, with military overthrows of government occurring more or less
annually (Dean, 1970; Needler, 1975; Thompson, 1975). The onset of the
‘third wave of democracy’ in 1978 and the adoption of democratic forms
of governance across most of the region, however, appeared to put an
end to decades of praetorianism and political instability. Although
scholars and policymakers alike turned their attention to issues of
democratic consolidation, the region continued to experience coups and
coup attempts throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s. While the focus on
democratic consolidation is understandable and necessary, a complete
understanding of political phenomena in the region must include
attention to coup activity over time. We suggest that coup activity has
not received adequate scholarly attention. We offer that a thorough
statistical analysis over an extended time series (1950-2000) provides
an ideal means to test hypotheses about the periodicity of coup
behavior. Specifically, we draw on previous studies and posit four
alternative trajectories of Latin American coups: steady, increasing,
decreasing, and decreasing with a cycle (see Dean 1970; Dix 1994;
Fossum 1970; Needler 1968; Nordlinger 1975; Putnam 1967; Wiarda 1978).
We model the structural time dynamics of coup behavior across nineteen
countries, from 1950-2000, using regression techniques, ARIMA modeling,
smoothing techniques, and spectral analysis. The results demonstrate
quite clearly that coup activity remains vigorous. What is more, that
activity manifests itself, to an important degree, in predictable
patterns, or cycles. Our main findings contradict the bulk of the
scholarship on this question, including some of the most recent
contributions. Results of our analysis have nontrivial implications for
the understanding of political phenomena in the region, including
political stability during the ‘third wave’ of democracy.

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Abstract Only All Academic Inc.
Associated Document Available The Midwest Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 38
Word count: 7472
Text sample:
Latin Rhythms: Coup Cycles in the Americas Michael Lewis-Beck* Department of Political Science University of Iowa 341 Schaeffer Hall Iowa City IA 52242-1409 michael-lewis-beck@uiowa.edu Phone: 319-335-2350 Erika Moreno* Department of Political Science University of Iowa 341 Schaeffer Hall Iowa City IA 52242-1409 erika-moreno@uiowa.edu Phone: 319-335-3400 Jacque Amoreux* Department of Political Science University of Iowa 341 Schaeffer Hall Iowa City IA 52242-1409 jacque-amoreux@uiowa.edu Phone: 319-335-2370 Abstract From the 1820s into the 1970s the coup d’etat or golpe de estado was
strongly positive just misses significance at .05 although it is significant at .10. This is not cause for alarm; rather it is due to the high level of collinearity that sometimes affects polynomial models. In this regard the subsequent loess regression is quite helpful. 11 In the correlogram we observed descending positive bars noting that the first two were significant. It seemed necessary to difference this series and reexamine the correlogram. The first (and third) significant negative bars of


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