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Rich State, Poor State; Red State, Blue State: Who's Voting for Whom in Presidential Elections?

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Abstract:

For decades, the Democrats have been viewed as the party of the poor with the
Republicans representing the rich. In recent years, however, a reverse pattern has
been seen, with Democrats showing strength in the richer “blue” states in the Northeast
and West, and Republicans dominating in the “red” states in the middle of the
country. Through multilevel analysis of individual-level survey data and county- and
state-level demographic and electoral data, we reconcile these patterns. We find that
there has indeed been a trend toward richer areas supporting the Democrats—but
within states and counties, and overall, the Democrats retain the support of the poorer
voters. This pattern has confused many political commentators into falsely believing
that Republicans represent poorer voters than Democrats.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

state (163), incom (134), coeffici (96), 2000 (94), 0.0 (81), year (80), vote (78), 1980 (76), 1990 (74), 1970 (74), 0.3 (67), republican (52), -0.3 (50), counti (47), level (43), model (42), elect (38), democrat (37), support (36), individu (36), analysi (31),
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
URL:
http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


Citation:
URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p85171_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Shor, Boris. "Rich State, Poor State; Red State, Blue State: Who's Voting for Whom in Presidential Elections?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 07, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p85171_index.html>

APA Citation:

Shor, B. , 2005-04-07 "Rich State, Poor State; Red State, Blue State: Who's Voting for Whom in Presidential Elections?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p85171_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: For decades, the Democrats have been viewed as the party of the poor with the
Republicans representing the rich. In recent years, however, a reverse pattern has
been seen, with Democrats showing strength in the richer “blue” states in the Northeast
and West, and Republicans dominating in the “red” states in the middle of the
country. Through multilevel analysis of individual-level survey data and county- and
state-level demographic and electoral data, we reconcile these patterns. We find that
there has indeed been a trend toward richer areas supporting the Democrats—but
within states and counties, and overall, the Democrats retain the support of the poorer
voters. This pattern has confused many political commentators into falsely believing
that Republicans represent poorer voters than Democrats.

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Associated Document Available The Midwest Political Science Association
Abstract Only All Academic Inc.
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 23
Word count: 6488
Text sample:
Rich state poor state; red state blue state: who's voting for whom in Presidential elections? (Draft) Andrew Gelman Boris Shor Joseph Bafumi§ David Park¶ April 4 2005 Abstract For decades the Democrats have been viewed as the party of the poor with the Republicans representing the rich. In recent years however a reverse pattern has been seen with Democrats showing strength in the richer "blue" states in the North- east and West and Republicans dominating in the "red" states
UK: MRC Biostatistics Unit. Steenbergen Marco R. and Bradford S. Jones. 2002. "Modeling Multilevel Data Struc- tures." American Journal of Political Science 46:218­237. Stonecash Jeffrey M. Mark D. Brewer R. Eric Petersen Mary P. McGuire and Lori Beth Way. 2000. "Class and Party: Secular Realignment and the Survival of Democrats out- side the South." Political Research Quarterly 53:731­752. Western Bruce. 1998. "Causal Heterogeneity in Comparative Research: A Bayesian Mod- elling Approach." American Journal of Political Science 42:1233­1259. Wright Gerald


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