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International Shocks and Party Change: An Empirical Analysis of Parties' Issue Salience and Militarized Interstate Disputes
Unformatted Document Text:  17 Before discussing the significance of the results, I must note that there is not a multicollinearity problem in any of the 12 models. But, White’s heteroskedasticity test confirms problems with the per102change, per103change, per105change, per106change, per107change, and per201change variables. It is for this reason I transform the data and run GLS regressions. Also, the control variable, contiguity, is not significant in any of the 12 models. A nation’s distance from a dispute in Europe does not seem to affect its foreign policy issue saliencies. For the first hypothesis, the changes in military strength and improvements were analyzed as a function of the following independent and control variables: (1) dispute participant, (2) MID level 4, (3) MID level 5, and (4) contiguity. Given the fixed-effects results and accounting for the directional nature of the hypothesis, dispute participant and MID level 4 are statistically significant and in the expected direction. For every one-unit increase in dispute participation, there is a .390 decrease in promises to weaken military strength. For every one-unit increase in MID level 4, there is a .484 increase in promises to improve military strength. The results listed in tables 4 and 5 lend support to the notion that political parties increase their emphasis on positive military improvements after participation in a dispute or use of force action. 5 [Insert Tables 4 and 5 here] For the second hypothesis, the changes in mentions of national sovereignty and international cooperation were analyzed as a function of the following independent and control variables: (1) dispute participant, (2) MID level 4, (3) MID level 5, and (4) contiguity. Given the fixed-effects results and accounting for the directional nature of the hypothesis, dispute participant and MID level 4 are statistically significant but in contradictory directions. For every one-unit increase in dispute participation, there is a .278 increase in positive mentions of national independence and sovereignty and a .151 increase in negative mentions of the European Community. For every

Authors: Podliska, Bradley.
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17
Before discussing the significance of the results, I must note that there is not a
multicollinearity problem in any of the 12 models. But, White’s heteroskedasticity test confirms
problems with the per102change, per103change, per105change, per106change, per107change,
and per201change variables. It is for this reason I transform the data and run GLS regressions.
Also, the control variable, contiguity, is not significant in any of the 12 models. A nation’s
distance from a dispute in Europe does not seem to affect its foreign policy issue saliencies.
For the first hypothesis, the changes in military strength and improvements were analyzed as
a function of the following independent and control variables: (1) dispute participant, (2) MID
level 4, (3) MID level 5, and (4) contiguity. Given the fixed-effects results and accounting for the
directional nature of the hypothesis, dispute participant and MID level 4 are statistically
significant and in the expected direction. For every one-unit increase in dispute participation,
there is a .390 decrease in promises to weaken military strength. For every one-unit increase in
MID level 4, there is a .484 increase in promises to improve military strength. The results listed
in tables 4 and 5 lend support to the notion that political parties increase their emphasis on
positive military improvements after participation in a dispute or use of force action.
5
[Insert Tables 4 and 5 here]
For the second hypothesis, the changes in mentions of national sovereignty and international
cooperation were analyzed as a function of the following independent and control variables: (1)
dispute participant, (2) MID level 4, (3) MID level 5, and (4) contiguity. Given the fixed-effects
results and accounting for the directional nature of the hypothesis, dispute participant and MID
level 4 are statistically significant but in contradictory directions. For every one-unit increase in
dispute participation, there is a .278 increase in positive mentions of national independence and
sovereignty and a .151 increase in negative mentions of the European Community. For every


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