18
one-unit increase in MID level 4, there is a .669 decrease in positive mentions of the
international cooperation, a .358 decrease in positive mentions of national independence and
sovereignty, and a .211 decrease in negative mentions of the European Community. The results
listed in tables 7, 8, 9, and 10 do not support involvement in disputes and subsequent increases in
emphasis on positive mentions of national independence and sovereignty.
[Insert Tables 7, 8, 9, and 10 here]
For the third hypothesis, the changes in mentions of positive “image” justifications for using
force were analyzed as a function of the following independent and control variables: (1) dispute
participant, (2) MID level 4, (3) MID level 5, and (4) contiguity. Given the fixed-effects results
and accounting for the directional nature of the hypothesis, dispute participant and MID level 5
are statistically significant but in contradictory directions. For every one-unit increase in dispute
participation, there is a .354 decrease in positive mentions of foreign special relationships and a
.110 increase in negative references to exerting strong influence over other states. For every
one-unit increase in MID level 5, there is a 1.096 decrease in positive mentions of democracy.
The results listed in tables 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, and 12 do not support involvement in disputes and
subsequent increases in positive image justifications for using force.
[Insert Tables 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, and 12 here]
Discussion
The results specify interesting aspects of the influence of international dispute shocks on
party issue emphasis change. European political parties do change in response to disputes within
their region. One of the changes, increasing military strength after a dispute, is expected. But,
the other two tested hypotheses, increases in mentions of national sovereignty and positive
justifications for using force, reveal mixed results. At best, individual European parties respond
5
Please see the Appendix for a comprehensive list of the STATA results.
Convention