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support for this policy and support for Livingstone.
We expect that in this case, none of the
parties were willing to move to attempt to co-opt this controversial issue.
The Role of Party Support
We had expected Livingstone’s support to come from the disenchanted elements of all
parties, especially Labour, but our analysis of the intended party ballot for the London Council
does not show this. Respondents saying they intended to vote for a party in the London Council
were more likely to vote for that party’s nominee for Mayor. This demonstrates that Livingstone
was not able to wrest support from strong partisans of other parties.
The Role of the Prime Minister
To a certain extent, the mayoral election served as a referendum on Blair and the “New
Labour” policies of his government. Blair’s involvement in the campaign further accentuated
this point. The results of our model show that voters who were less likely to vote for Dobson
because of Tony Blair were, more likely to vote for Livingstone over Dobson, and Livingstone
over Kramer. Livingstone pushed the idea that Dobson, his greatest rival, would be little more
than a party shill for the Blair government. In the election, Dobson appeared as a dour
committeeman in contrast to the maverick Livingstone; and voters who wanted to send Blair a
message did so by voting for Livingstone.
Why People Left the Two Party System
Voters in London had the chance to select the first directly elected chief executive in
British history and used this to select Ken Livingstone. Our model demonstrates that voters left
the major parties because Livingstone, unlike many single-issue third parties, presented a
message that appealed to voters of all ages and social classes. To assure himself of at least a first
or second place finish on the first ballot, Livingstone needed to defeat Dobson head-to-head, and
make sure that the other party candidates could not gain an advantage on him. In our model, for
Livingstone it is not important that there are not significant relationships between the variables
Convention