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Public Knowledge of the Science of Polls:??What Individual Characteristics Determine the Ability to Identify Survey Methodology?
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Public Knowledge of the “Science” of Polls: What Individual Characteristics
Determine the Ability to Identify Survey Methodology?
Mary Currin-Percival
University of California, Riverside
Abstract
In this paper, I examine some of the individual characteristics of people who are able to identify at leastone methodological component of scientific surveys-random sampling. I hope to answer the question ofwhether there is a difference between those who can identify scientific methodology and those whocannot. My goal here is to fit this study into a broader study of the role of polls and surveys as tools forpersuasion. Using Zaller’s (1992) Receive-Accept-Sample (RAS) Model as a theoretical framework, Itested four hypotheses.
I estimated a logit model and found support for two of my hypotheses:
ideological conservatives are less likely to recognize that a random sample of 1500 to 2000 can accuratelyreflect the views of the whole nation and individuals who read the newspaper are more likely to recognizethis. In fact, I found that very liberal respondents who read the newspaper are 15.2% more likely toidentify that a random sample can represent the population than very conservative respondents who watchtelevision news.
Prepared for submission to the annual meeting of the Southwestern Political ScienceAssociation, New Orleans, LA, March 24-March 26, 2005
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| | Authors: Currin-Percival, Mary. |
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Public Knowledge of the “Science” of Polls: What Individual Characteristics
Determine the Ability to Identify Survey Methodology?
Mary Currin-Percival
University of California, Riverside
Abstract
In this paper, I examine some of the individual characteristics of people who are able to identify at least
one methodological component of scientific surveys-random sampling. I hope to answer the question of
whether there is a difference between those who can identify scientific methodology and those who
cannot. My goal here is to fit this study into a broader study of the role of polls and surveys as tools for
persuasion. Using Zaller’s (1992) Receive-Accept-Sample (RAS) Model as a theoretical framework, I
tested four hypotheses.
I estimated a logit model and found support for two of my hypotheses:
ideological conservatives are less likely to recognize that a random sample of 1500 to 2000 can accurately
reflect the views of the whole nation and individuals who read the newspaper are more likely to recognize
this. In fact, I found that very liberal respondents who read the newspaper are 15.2% more likely to
identify that a random sample can represent the population than very conservative respondents who watch
television news.
Prepared for submission to the annual meeting of the Southwestern Political Science
Association, New Orleans, LA, March 24-March 26, 2005
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