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Table 4 About Here
Table 4 is a regression that seeks to measure union influence on state
results in the 2000 presidential election. The dependent variable in the regression was the
percentage of the popular vote received by Al Gore in 2000 in each state. To control for
racial differences in voting, which are very significant in the United States, independent
variables were included for the African-American and Latino percentages of each state’s
population. The third independent variable was the percentage of the state’s labor force
that belonged to a labor union.
The results of the regression presented in Table 4 indicate that union density is an
important predictor of a state’s percentage voting for Gore. While African-American
population was positively correlated with the vote for Gore, it is a large union workforce
that contributed most significantly to a larger vote for Gore. When we control for the
impact of race in each state, union density was a strong positive predictor of support for
Gore in the 2000 election. When the 2004 election is examined, the same results occur.
Union density is strongly correlated with the Democratic popular vote.
The regression in Table 4 demonstrates the price that labor has paid by being a
highly regionalized factor in American politics. Based on the 2000 and 2004 elections, it
is clear that an expanded union membership would benefit the Democratic Party. Table 4
also demonstrates that if labor wishes to be an even stronger influence in presidential
politics, it must expand union density in at least some states where it has been weak. This
situation was summed in 2005 by a union official who said of the of the 2000 election in
Florida that, …”We tell ourselves that if we had organized Florida 15 years ago, George
W. Bush would never have won this state. (Greenhouse, 2005).
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