17
Conclusion
In many senses, labor’s massive voter mobilization strategy in 2000 and 2004
was a success. It provided Al Gore with a popular vote victory in the nation and brought
John Kerry to within 18 votes of an Electoral College win in 2004. ( In 2000 and
especially in 2004, other groups were also involved in mobilizing the Democratic vote.)
Unions helped Gore and Kerry win the crucial battleground states of Michigan and
Pennsylvania and were also essential to both Democrats’ wins in Minnesota, Wisconsin,
Washington, and Oregon.
Labor’s turnout strategy was limited by several factors. First there is a rather
severe geographical limit to labor’s ability to influence the results of presidential
elections. Labor’s influence is, for the most part, concentrated in the Northeastern, upper
Midwestern and Pacific coast states of the country. In most of the so-called Bush “red
zone” of states in the South, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain West, union density is
well below the national average. Population trends are reducing the Electoral college
influence of high union density states. With the exception of California, all of the states
gaining House seats, and therefore electoral votes, as a result of the 2000 census, were
carried by Bush in 2000. Unless they can expand union membership in low density
states, unions’ electoral power will be further circumscribed in future presidential
elections.
Union turnout strategy is further limited by the inability of labor to convince a
greater number of union members and members of their households to vote for union
endorsed candidates. While it is true that empirical research has indicated that union
members are far more likely to vote for Democrats than are other workers, unions must
Convention