38
Hispanics were more than 90% of the population, and a 2002 study showed Tony Sanchez
received 88% of the Hispanic vote.
119
It cannot yet be known how much of George W. Bush’s
success among Hispanics in 2004 reflects a long-term trend and how much was the product of
unique circumstances (e.g., a Yankee, patrician Democratic candidate seen as unsteady on
terrorism who had trouble connecting with Texans of all backgrounds). Realistically, Democrats
have little choice but to rest their hopes largely on the Hispanic community.
120
While the
demographics of Hispanic growth are unmistakable, the extent and direction of their political
involvement are uncertain. One veteran analyst of Texas politics suggests that whites will cast
the majority of Texas ballots for another 15 to 20 years.
121
Democrats have taken steps to improve their position. They have come together
internally and, arguably, have rebounded from their lowest point around the turn of the
millennium. They are rebuilding. In their ideal world, their future would not be so dependent on
demographic trends (and their hoped-for partisan correlates) and splits in the Republican ranks.
But their world is still far from ideal. For the short- to intermediate-term, their prospects will
depend substantially on their ability to take advantage of opportunities that Republican divisions
present. While those divisions may be moderating, they are still far from extinct.
Convention