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An Extension and Reanalysis of Fiorina's Divided Government Thesis
Unformatted Document Text:  21 Table Two: Effects of Total Compensation and Term Limits on the Percentage of Democrats Elected to State Lower Houses Using Presidential Election Year and Gubernatorial Election Year as Control Variables, N=650. Percentage of Democrats Elected to State Lower Houses Independent Variable Model Four Model Five Model Six Model Seven Lagged Percentage of Democrats Elected .699*** (.058) .690*** (.057) .690 (.057) Professionalization 7.145* (3.058) 8.745** (2.900) 8.815 (3.556) Term Limits -3.767 (2.128) -3.680 (3.219) -14.364** (4.548) Term Limits*Professionalization -.308 (5.067) 27.622** (10.534) Presidential Election Year 1.267 (3.064) 1.672 (2.982) 1.672 (2.983) Gubernatorial Election Year -.134 (1.050) -.238 (1.047) -.236 (1.047) Midterm Election 3.696 (3.326) 4.383 (3.247) 4.382 (3.246) Citizen Ideology .145*** (.039) .135*** (.038) .135*** (.039) Constant 4.243 (4.022) 4.989 (3.952) 4.977 (3.971) 51.208*** (1.061) N 650 650 650 650 R-Squared .626 .632 .632 .034 Wald Chi-Squared 439.02 468.07 468.90 10.12 Prob>Chi-Squared <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 .006 Note: The values in parentheses are panel corrected standard errors. Second, * denotes p<.05, ** denotes p<.01, *** denotes p<.001; all two-tailed tests.

Authors: Moffett, Ken.
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21
Table Two: Effects of Total Compensation and Term Limits on the Percentage of Democrats
Elected to State Lower Houses Using Presidential Election Year and Gubernatorial Election Year
as Control Variables, N=650.
Percentage of Democrats Elected to State Lower Houses
Independent Variable Model
Four Model
Five Model
Six Model
Seven
Lagged Percentage of
Democrats Elected
.699***
(.058)
.690***
(.057)
.690
(.057)
Professionalization 7.145*
(3.058)
8.745**
(2.900)
8.815
(3.556)
Term Limits
-3.767
(2.128)
-3.680
(3.219)
-14.364**
(4.548)
Term
Limits*Professionalization
-.308
(5.067)
27.622**
(10.534)
Presidential Election Year
1.267
(3.064)
1.672
(2.982)
1.672
(2.983)
Gubernatorial Election
Year
-.134
(1.050)
-.238
(1.047)
-.236
(1.047)
Midterm Election
3.696
(3.326)
4.383
(3.247)
4.382
(3.246)
Citizen Ideology
.145***
(.039)
.135***
(.038)
.135***
(.039)
Constant 4.243
(4.022)
4.989
(3.952)
4.977
(3.971)
51.208***
(1.061)
N
650 650 650 650
R-Squared
.626 .632 .632 .034
Wald
Chi-Squared 439.02 468.07 468.90 10.12
Prob>Chi-Squared <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 .006
Note: The values in parentheses are panel corrected standard errors. Second, * denotes p<.05, **
denotes p<.01, *** denotes p<.001; all two-tailed tests.


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