Berg -- Realigning Elections -- 3/3/2004
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only be identified once two or three succeeding elections reveal its lasting impact.
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Accordingly,
it is too soon to determine whether the election of 2000 was critical, or whether 2004 or 2008
will be.
However, that is not to say that realignment theory is irrelevant to political practice. The
theory show where the levers are that can be used for system change. Past realignments were
brought about when a bloc of voters cohered around an issue that was not represented by the ex-
isting major party structure. The above analysis suggests that anti-globalization — more accu-
rately, “global justice” — has the potential to be such an issue. Majorities and leaders of both the
Democrats and Republicans are committed to the WTO agenda of unrestrained trade. If the
Greens can bring together an electoral coalition committed to putting global justice first, they
may be able to trigger a large political change, and accomplish an important part of their policy
goals — although, like the Liberty party in the 1840s, they themselves might not survive the
process.
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“. . . realignment theory by its very nature is longitudinal, and it takes historical time to make
considered judgments as to just when a durable political disjuncture occurs and what its essential
characteristics are,” Theodore Rosenof, Realignment: The Theory That Changed the Way we
Think About American Politics (Lanham MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2003), 165.
Convention