5
Third, what role is played by the size of the current states? Fourth, what is the impact of
geography? And finally, what are the historical and cultural ties between the candidates
and current members? As we will see, all of these factors predispose Germany to favor
the EU expansion and other EU states to oppose it.
The first factor is the role of subsidies. States such as Poland will compete with
the poorer EU states—and with poor regions of wealthier states--in the hunt for EU
subsidies. All of the candidate states are dramatically poorer than the current EU
members. For example, Poland’s GNP per capita was estimated in 2001 at $4,170, as
compared for $11,190 for Portugal and $11,730 for Greece, the two poorest current
members.
7
Currently it is estimated that the leading recipient states receive net ‘profits’
of over 300 Euros per person from the EU every year, an amount which can reach 4% of
their GNP. Within ten years of accession, this income could be cut drastically; under
some scenarios, major recipient states like Spain could actually become net payers.
8
Such competition for EU subsidies is much less important for wealthy states such as
Germany, with an estimated GNP/capita in 2001 of $25,130.
9
Germany’s main concern
is to ensure that overall subsidies do not rise too dramatically, since Berlin is the largest
net payer into the EU budget. As long as this is accomplished, the redistribution of
subsidies is of relatively little importance to Germany—while it is of existential
importance to the poorer EU lands.
7
Source: World Bank estimates for 2001, in current U.S. dollars. Online at
http://worldbank.org
. Figures
calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity are somewhat more optimistic. Tuschhoff (2002, 4) for
example, asserts that Poland is currently at about 40% of the EU average per capita GNP. Yet even at that
level, he asserts, Poland will need over thirty years to even reach 75% of the EU average.
8
See Table 2 of Weise, 2002. As of 2002, the leading net recipient states were Ireland (329 Euros per
capita), Greece (307), Portugal (227) and Spain (159).
9
Ibid. Admittedly, some regions of Germany—notably the ‘Neue Länder,’ i.e. the former East German
areas—do stand to lose structural funding from the EU if money is diverted to the new members.
Convention