David C. Earnest, Voting Rights for Resident Aliens -- 26
Rather than EU states being more likely to enfranchise resident aliens,
they are significantly less likely to do so. It is worth noting that
proportional representation systems are not significantly more likely
to enfranchise resident aliens, despite their emphasis on the inclusion
of social minorities. Likewise, the dummy variables for the state’s
political development are not significant, indicating that neither its
legacy of representative institutions nor its history of formation is
relevant to its enfranchisement of resident aliens.
Interestingly, the PCSE analysis provides a validity check that,
at least on questions of the nationalist and postnationalist
hypotheses, largely affirms the findings of the ordered probit
analysis. The PCSE regression finds two nationalist variables
significant--birthright citizenship and strength of judicial review
(though not the social security or partisan variables). Likewise, it
finds these two significant in the same directions as the ordered
probit estimates, suggesting some validity to the surprising finding
about the influence of judicial review. Both the PCSE and ordered
probit analysis find support for the “border” variable. The two
techniques diverge, however, in their estimates of the hypothesized
control variables. The PCSE analysis finds that the temporal and
political development dummies all are significant, while the EU dummy
is not significant. This is the converse of the ordered probit
analysis, which found support only for the EU dummy. This divergence of
the two techniques suggests that one must be cautious in inferring any
validity of the model from the PCSE analysis.
V. Discussion
These findings suggest only mixed support for the nationalist
thesis. It is clear that, despite globalization and the
Convention