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Tempering Trade Conflicts and the North-South Divide: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction and Trade Liberalization

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Abstract:

The findings of the broad body of work on interstate disputes reinforce the assumption that conflict and cooperation occurring between pairs of states is a time-dependent process that varies depending on the type of issue that is involved in a particular situation and the type of domestic policy structure in play. That is, the occurrence of cooperation between two states at time t is a function of the perceptions by involved domestic actors over the distribution and magnitude of the costs and benefits accompanying the issue under negotiation, which then conditions the likelihood that cooperation will occur between two states at time t+n. This claim that dyadic interstate interaction is temporally dependent has important implications for the way we theorize and formulate our hypothesis on cooperation, as well as on the way we specify our statistical models. Empirical analyses of interstate relations implicitly assume that the units of analysis are independent and are often cast in the absence of historical context. This paper constructs a dynamic model of North-South interstate interactions by incorporating an historical component into our understandings of interstate relations between the North and the South. The model includes both conflictual and cooperative components, and exhibits the basic properties of growth and decay that characterizes the North-South divide. I test the model by analyzing archival information concerning the European Union, the United States and the Cairns Group negotiating positions over trade liberalization at the Uruguay Round (1986 to 1994) and at the WTO Doha Ministerial meeting. The findings contradict many aspects of recent scholarship on the North-South divide and trade liberalization. In addition, by including the historical record of interstate behavior in the occurrence of cooperative initiatives among North and South states during these aforementioned meetings, the model has a potential to effectively explain successes and failures of international cooperation and to carry out other tasks, such as mapping the sources of successful negotiation strategies and explaining the conditions that produce policy stability and policy change. Preliminary quantitative analyses offer support for these hypotheses.
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Name: International Studies Association
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http://www.isanet.org


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URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p99036_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Morales-Ortiz, Javier. "Tempering Trade Conflicts and the North-South Divide: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction and Trade Liberalization" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Town & Country Resort and Convention Center, San Diego, California, USA, Mar 22, 2006 <Not Available>. 2013-12-17 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p99036_index.html>

APA Citation:

Morales-Ortiz, J. , 2006-03-22 "Tempering Trade Conflicts and the North-South Divide: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction and Trade Liberalization" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Town & Country Resort and Convention Center, San Diego, California, USA <Not Available>. 2013-12-17 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p99036_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The findings of the broad body of work on interstate disputes reinforce the assumption that conflict and cooperation occurring between pairs of states is a time-dependent process that varies depending on the type of issue that is involved in a particular situation and the type of domestic policy structure in play. That is, the occurrence of cooperation between two states at time t is a function of the perceptions by involved domestic actors over the distribution and magnitude of the costs and benefits accompanying the issue under negotiation, which then conditions the likelihood that cooperation will occur between two states at time t+n. This claim that dyadic interstate interaction is temporally dependent has important implications for the way we theorize and formulate our hypothesis on cooperation, as well as on the way we specify our statistical models. Empirical analyses of interstate relations implicitly assume that the units of analysis are independent and are often cast in the absence of historical context. This paper constructs a dynamic model of North-South interstate interactions by incorporating an historical component into our understandings of interstate relations between the North and the South. The model includes both conflictual and cooperative components, and exhibits the basic properties of growth and decay that characterizes the North-South divide. I test the model by analyzing archival information concerning the European Union, the United States and the Cairns Group negotiating positions over trade liberalization at the Uruguay Round (1986 to 1994) and at the WTO Doha Ministerial meeting. The findings contradict many aspects of recent scholarship on the North-South divide and trade liberalization. In addition, by including the historical record of interstate behavior in the occurrence of cooperative initiatives among North and South states during these aforementioned meetings, the model has a potential to effectively explain successes and failures of international cooperation and to carry out other tasks, such as mapping the sources of successful negotiation strategies and explaining the conditions that produce policy stability and policy change. Preliminary quantitative analyses offer support for these hypotheses.

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