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Negative Advertising Effects on Presidential Support Rates: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Serial Dependency Study

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Abstract:

The present study examined the dynamic nature of negative advertising effects on presidential candidate's public support ratings. Weekly data from 2011 and 2012 were used to present (a) pooled time series analysis with Hierarchical Liner Modeling, and (b) individual time series analysis with ARIMA. The results demonstrated support for a social influence model derived from attribution theory, wherein negative ads did, in fact, influence poll results. And presidential candidates competed in characteristic ways when loading attack ads, as spending on negative advertising against Romney predicted spending on advertising attacking Obama in about one month at Lag 3 and Lag 4. Furthermore, the presumed bias inherent to certain public opinion polls influenced poll results, such that liberally biased polls increased support for Obama. By contrast, polls with a conservative bias only improved suppoort for Obama when offered by a source presumed to be high in quality.
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Association:
Name: ICA's 66th Annual Conference
URL:
http://www.icahdq.org


Citation:
URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p1107352_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Ma, Tao., Atkin, David., Snyder, Leslie. and VanLear, C.. "Negative Advertising Effects on Presidential Support Rates: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Serial Dependency Study" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ICA's 66th Annual Conference, Hilton Fukuoka Sea Hawk, Fukuoka, Japan, Jun 07, 2016 <Not Available>. 2016-12-09 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p1107352_index.html>

APA Citation:

Ma, T. (., Atkin, D. J., Snyder, L. and VanLear, C. A. , 2016-06-07 "Negative Advertising Effects on Presidential Support Rates: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Serial Dependency Study" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ICA's 66th Annual Conference, Hilton Fukuoka Sea Hawk, Fukuoka, Japan Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2016-12-09 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p1107352_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The present study examined the dynamic nature of negative advertising effects on presidential candidate's public support ratings. Weekly data from 2011 and 2012 were used to present (a) pooled time series analysis with Hierarchical Liner Modeling, and (b) individual time series analysis with ARIMA. The results demonstrated support for a social influence model derived from attribution theory, wherein negative ads did, in fact, influence poll results. And presidential candidates competed in characteristic ways when loading attack ads, as spending on negative advertising against Romney predicted spending on advertising attacking Obama in about one month at Lag 3 and Lag 4. Furthermore, the presumed bias inherent to certain public opinion polls influenced poll results, such that liberally biased polls increased support for Obama. By contrast, polls with a conservative bias only improved suppoort for Obama when offered by a source presumed to be high in quality.


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