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Factors Influencing the Diffusion of the Internet in China: 1997-2001
Unformatted Document Text:  11 access to mass media, should be proposed. Although this condition is violated the real world, the socio-economic change should at least remain steady and balanced. Economic indicators show that all but the inflation rate changes within one percent. Population structure including growth rate and student rate are stable with change lower than 0.5% per year, while the population in poverty has remained at 5-10% over years. Therefore, we can deem it as a homogeneous population over years. Radio listener and TV viewer rating increased less than 2% each year and penetrate into the more than 90% of the population. We can conclude that substantively whole population has access to the mass media. The telecommunication price kept increasing every year by a stable rate between 10% and 20% and this fact can hardly explain the increasing of Internet population. Overall, China’s society in the last five years of 20 th century was a stable society without remarkable social-economic changes. ___________________________ Table 1 & Figure 1 about here ____________________________ The population of Internet users increased more than 70 times from 62,000 in October 1997 to 45 million in July 2002 (table 2). The growth of Internet adopters approaches a steep S-shaped curve over time (figure 2). Logistic regression indicates that time as an independent variable explains 98.3% of the variance, while exponential regression explains 96.7% of variations. The upper bound is between 57 million and 63 million (Figure 3 & 4). The logistic

Authors: Lin, Jia.
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access to mass media, should be proposed. Although this condition is violated
the real world, the socio-economic change should at least remain steady and
balanced.
Economic indicators show that all but the inflation rate changes within one
percent. Population structure including growth rate and student rate are stable
with change lower than 0.5% per year, while the population in poverty has
remained at 5-10% over years. Therefore, we can deem it as a homogeneous
population over years. Radio listener and TV viewer rating increased less than
2% each year and penetrate into the more than 90% of the population. We can
conclude that substantively whole population has access to the mass media. The
telecommunication price kept increasing every year by a stable rate between
10% and 20% and this fact can hardly explain the increasing of Internet
population. Overall, China’s society in the last five years of 20
th
century was a
stable society without remarkable social-economic changes.
___________________________
Table 1 & Figure 1 about here
____________________________
The population of Internet users increased more than 70 times from
62,000 in October 1997 to 45 million in July 2002 (table 2). The growth of Internet
adopters approaches a steep S-shaped curve over time (figure 2). Logistic
regression indicates that time as an independent variable explains 98.3% of the
variance, while exponential regression explains 96.7% of variations. The upper
bound is between 57 million and 63 million (Figure 3 & 4). The logistic


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