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Factors Influencing the Diffusion of the Internet in China: 1997-2001
Unformatted Document Text:  12 regression line overlaps with the observed line before time 6 (January, 2000) and after time 9 (July, 2001), while the observed curve is significantly above the logistic regression line. It indicates that China’s Internet population increased in an exceptional high rate during 2000 and 2001. However, the increasing began to level out in the second half of 2001. ______________________________ Figure 2, table 2, figure 3 & 4 about here _______________________________ The normal S shape diffusion only takes place when biases such as dramatic socio-economical changes do not exist. Though it is an unrealistic assumption, we can still conclude that the socio-economical changes are not significant in China from 1997-2002, and China has remained a stable state since. Even so, there are various elements from social system that influence the adoption of Internet. The next section of this paper is to examine the factors that explain the increase of Internet adoption in China. Conducting correlation analysis in all variables at provincial level with their Internet uses, and two correlation tables are achieved for analyzing popularity and penetration rate. Table 3 shows that all variables except population (r=0.315) have significant correlation with number of Internet users. Among them, rate of home computer ownership (r=.889), and income of urban and rural residents (.806 and .835 respectively) have the highest Pearson correlation values. Table 4 shows that the variables with the Internet adoption rate are the proportion of population with higher education (.824) and rate of home computer ownership

Authors: Lin, Jia.
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12
regression line overlaps with the observed line before time 6 (January, 2000) and
after time 9 (July, 2001), while the observed curve is significantly above the
logistic regression line. It indicates that China’s Internet population increased in
an exceptional high rate during 2000 and 2001. However, the increasing began
to level out in the second half of 2001.
______________________________
Figure 2, table 2, figure 3 & 4 about here
_______________________________
The normal S shape diffusion only takes place when biases such as
dramatic socio-economical changes do not exist. Though it is an unrealistic
assumption, we can still conclude that the socio-economical changes are not
significant in China from 1997-2002, and China has remained a stable state
since. Even so, there are various elements from social system that influence the
adoption of Internet. The next section of this paper is to examine the factors that
explain the increase of Internet adoption in China.
Conducting correlation analysis in all variables at provincial level with their
Internet uses, and two correlation tables are achieved for analyzing popularity
and penetration rate. Table 3 shows that all variables except population (r=0.315)
have significant correlation with number of Internet users. Among them, rate of
home computer ownership (r=.889), and income of urban and rural residents
(.806 and .835 respectively) have the highest Pearson correlation values. Table 4
shows that the variables with the Internet adoption rate are the proportion of
population with higher education (.824) and rate of home computer ownership


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