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Factors Influencing the Diffusion of the Internet in China: 1997-2001
Unformatted Document Text:  20 results in a lower rate of Internet adoption, since the adopters are much fewer than non-adopters, even if the absolute numbers are large, as is the case in Guangdong Province. According to CNNIC 2001 survey, there are 2,180 thousand of Internet users in this province, which is the No. 1 in the country, but the adoption rate is only 2.52%. Future outlook Keep in mind that the S-shaped diffusion curve happens under the assumption that the socio-economic conditions remain in relative stability. Also, this diffusion model proposed that unless a big breakthrough in some economic factor, such as exceptionally high economic growth or sharp drop in computer prices and Internet costs, the Internet population in China will follow the normal diffusion path. China’ economy has maintained a growth of 7%-8% for several years. The major change that could influence Internet diffusion would be China’s entry to the WTO. The advantages and disadvantages of WTO entry are not clear at the present stage. It might be a catalyst for China’s economy to benefit from the open global market, increasing job opportunities and importing high technology; on the other hand, it might also cause China’s economy to deteriorate with the collapse of state-owned industries, provoking higher unemployment and the high risk of playing in global market. As people often say, it could be a challenge and an opportunity. Regarding the Internet development in China, WTO entry will stimulate more competition in computer industry. As computer prices are cut

Authors: Lin, Jia.
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20
results in a lower rate of Internet adoption, since the adopters are much fewer
than non-adopters, even if the absolute numbers are large, as is the case in
Guangdong Province. According to CNNIC 2001 survey, there are 2,180
thousand of Internet users in this province, which is the No. 1 in the country, but
the adoption rate is only 2.52%.
Future outlook
Keep in mind that the S-shaped diffusion curve happens under the
assumption that the socio-economic conditions remain in relative stability. Also,
this diffusion model proposed that unless a big breakthrough in some economic
factor, such as exceptionally high economic growth or sharp drop in computer
prices and Internet costs, the Internet population in China will follow the normal
diffusion path.
China’ economy has maintained a growth of 7%-8% for several years. The
major change that could influence Internet diffusion would be China’s entry to the
WTO. The advantages and disadvantages of WTO entry are not clear at the
present stage. It might be a catalyst for China’s economy to benefit from the
open global market, increasing job opportunities and importing high technology;
on the other hand, it might also cause China’s economy to deteriorate with the
collapse of state-owned industries, provoking higher unemployment and the high
risk of playing in global market. As people often say, it could be a challenge and
an opportunity. Regarding the Internet development in China, WTO entry will
stimulate more competition in computer industry. As computer prices are cut


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