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Factors Influencing the Diffusion of the Internet in China: 1997-2001
Unformatted Document Text:  8 population is only 807,000, and smaller than that of Jiangsu Province (3.2%), whose Internet population is 1,485,000. The popularity reflects the scale of the market in certain areas while penetration rate indicates the density of adopters in the area. The number of China’s Internet users has ranked third in the world (CNN, 2002), but penetration rate is under 3%, which is far less than that of US (59.1% in April 2002, according to NelsonNetrating) or that of Japan (40.43% in June 2002 according to Netrating Japan) .This sharp contrast suggests that it is necessity to examine both population and penetration rate of Internet technologies to better understand the diffusion process. Method This study takes two different approaches in building model of predicting China’s Internet diffusion: First a diffusion model based on a time series, and second, a regression model on several relevant predictors. Data on the Internet population in China comes from the China National Network Information Center (CNNIC). CNNIC has issued 10 semi-annual survey results on China’s Internet users since October 1997. These reports are available in CNNIC’s website, and the access is free of charge for public. By using online auto search, online-survey, and spot check, CNINIC’s survey reflects Internet development and Internet usage in China. Working with four main networks, CNNIC’s large-scale survey generalizes a large body of respondents. One of the latest surveys on January 2002 generalized more than 1.6 million respondents within which 573, 000 are valid. The spot check by telephone found 3,679 valid

Authors: Lin, Jia.
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population is only 807,000, and smaller than that of Jiangsu Province (3.2%),
whose Internet population is 1,485,000. The popularity reflects the scale of the
market in certain areas while penetration rate indicates the density of adopters in
the area. The number of China’s Internet users has ranked third in the world
(CNN, 2002), but penetration rate is under 3%, which is far less than that of US
(59.1% in April 2002, according to NelsonNetrating) or that of Japan (40.43% in
June 2002 according to Netrating Japan) .This sharp contrast suggests that it is
necessity to examine both population and penetration rate of Internet
technologies to better understand the diffusion process.
Method
This study takes two different approaches in building model of predicting
China’s Internet diffusion: First a diffusion model based on a time series, and
second, a regression model on several relevant predictors.
Data on the Internet population in China comes from the China National
Network Information Center (CNNIC). CNNIC has issued 10 semi-annual survey
results on China’s Internet users since October 1997. These reports are available
in CNNIC’s website, and the access is free of charge for public. By using online
auto search, online-survey, and spot check, CNINIC’s survey reflects Internet
development and Internet usage in China. Working with four main networks,
CNNIC’s large-scale survey generalizes a large body of respondents. One of the
latest surveys on January 2002 generalized more than 1.6 million respondents
within which 573, 000 are valid. The spot check by telephone found 3,679 valid


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