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A Longitudinal Time Series Analysis of the Foreign Affairs Issue: Agendas of the President, the Media, the Public
Unformatted Document Text:  Presidential PR efforts and Foreign Policy 18 Series ARIMA Term Coefficients t ratio p _____________________________________________________________ Media (1,0,1) φ = .84 10.61 .000 φ = .36 2.59 .011 Public opinion (1,0,0) φ = .80 13.27 .000 Pres (0,0,1) φ =-.22 -2.24 .026 _____________________________________________________________ ARIMA cross-correlation analysis. The next step is to examine the bivariate (or respective pairs) of relationships of the foreign policy issue agendas. This bivariate analysis took each modeled series and examined the cross-lagged correlations for each of the possible pairs of agendas (Gonzenbach, 1996). The cross-lagged correlation process treats one of the series as dependent and the other as independent. The analysis simultaneously examines the relationship between the independent series at a given month k and the dependent series for each of the 6 months prior to k and the 6 months after the month k, as well as at the month k itself, which becomes known as the synchronous or mirrored relationship. The relationship between the media at month k and public opinion at some previous month, such as k - 2, is typically referred to as the relationship of public opinion at lag -2 on the media. As Table 11 indicates, the strongest significant cross-lagged correlation between media news coverage of the foreign policy and public opinion is at the synchronous time lag. The relationship is also significant at lags +1 through +6, indicating that public opinion appears to be driven by television news coverage. However, the relationship is also significant at lags –1 through –6, indicating a reciprocal relationship, with news media coverage being driven by public opinion. The first hypothesis predicts that a two-way (feedback) effect will occur between the media and public opinion, but that the effect of the media on public opinion will occur

Authors: Mitrook, Michael.
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Presidential PR efforts and Foreign Policy
18
Series
ARIMA
Term
Coefficients
t ratio
p
_____________________________________________________________

Media
(1,0,1)
φ
= .84
10.61
.000
φ
= .36
2.59
.011
Public
opinion
(1,0,0)
φ
= .80
13.27
.000
Pres
(0,0,1)
φ
=-.22 -2.24
.026

_____________________________________________________________
ARIMA cross-correlation analysis. The next step is to examine the bivariate (or
respective pairs) of relationships of the foreign policy issue agendas. This bivariate
analysis took each modeled series and examined the cross-lagged correlations for each of
the possible pairs of agendas (Gonzenbach, 1996). The cross-lagged correlation process
treats one of the series as dependent and the other as independent. The analysis
simultaneously examines the relationship between the independent series at a given
month k and the dependent series for each of the 6 months prior to k and the 6 months
after the month k, as well as at the month k itself, which becomes known as the
synchronous or mirrored relationship. The relationship between the media at month k
and public opinion at some previous month, such as k - 2, is typically referred to as the
relationship of public opinion at lag -2 on the media.
As Table 11 indicates, the strongest significant cross-lagged correlation between
media news coverage of the foreign policy and public opinion is at the synchronous time
lag. The relationship is also significant at lags +1 through +6, indicating that public
opinion appears to be driven by television news coverage. However, the relationship is
also significant at lags –1 through –6, indicating a reciprocal relationship, with news
media coverage being driven by public opinion.
The first hypothesis predicts that a two-way (feedback) effect will occur between
the media and public opinion, but that the effect of the media on public opinion will occur


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