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Agenda setting and political partisanship in an election campaign: Reinforcing and undermining partisan voting intentions
Unformatted Document Text:  17 ____________________ Figure 4 here ____________________ The analysis of certainty about voting decision indicated a significant increment in explained variance at Step 1 after inclusion of political partisanship, R 2 change = .14, F(2,177) = 13.85, p = .000. Overall, neutral voters (M = 5.15) were less certain about the voting decision that they made on election day than either Labor partisans (M = 6.15) or Liberal partisans (M = 6.24). The importance of on-agenda issues pre-election did not added reliably to certainty about voting decision, R 2 change = .01, F(2,175) = 1.36, ns, and there was no evidence of a two-way interaction involving importance of the issue of immigration, R 2 change = .00, F(2,173) < 1. However, results indicated a reliable two-way interaction between partisanship and importance of the issue of defense, R 2 change = .03, F(2,173) = 3.04, p = .050, and with this term in the model, 18% of variance in certainty about voting decision was explained, F(6,173) = 6.17, p = .000. There was a significant negative association between issue importance and certainty for Labor partisans, b = –.22, t(173) = -2.15, p = .033, and non-significant positive associations between issue importance and certainty for Liberal partisans, b = .09, t(1073) = .74, ns, and neutral voters, b = .07, t(173) = .70, ns. Again, as can be seen in Figure 5, issue importance polarized partisan voters’ certainty in their voting decision, Labor partisans feeling less certain and Liberal partisans somewhat more certain about the vote that they made to the extent that they had regarded the issue of defense as personally important pre-election. ____________________ Figure 5 here ____________________ Finally, analysis of confidence in the newly-elected Prime Minister, John Howard, revealed a significant increment in explained variance at Step 1 after inclusion of political partisanship, R 2 change = .50, F(2,178) = 87.23, p = .000. Predictably, Liberal partisans (M = 6.36) were more confident in John Howard than neutral voters (M = 4.70), and Labor partisans (M = 3.04) were least confident of all. Issue importance added reliably to explanation of confidence in John Howard, R 2 change = .05, F(2,176) = 9.46, p = .000. Although there was no significant main effect of importance of the issue of immigration, β = –.06, t(176) = 1.11, ns, respondents reported more confidence in John Howard to the extent that they had regarded the

Authors: Duck, Julie., Morton, Thomas. and Fortey, Kate.
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background image
17
____________________
Figure 4 here
____________________
The analysis of certainty about voting decision indicated a significant increment in
explained variance at Step 1 after inclusion of political partisanship, R
2
change = .14, F(2,177) =
13.85, p = .000. Overall, neutral voters (M = 5.15) were less certain about the voting decision
that they made on election day than either Labor partisans (M = 6.15) or Liberal partisans (M =
6.24). The importance of on-agenda issues pre-election did not added reliably to certainty about
voting decision, R
2
change = .01, F(2,175) = 1.36, ns, and there was no evidence of a two-way
interaction involving importance of the issue of immigration, R
2
change = .00, F(2,173) < 1.
However, results indicated a reliable two-way interaction between partisanship and importance
of the issue of defense, R
2
change = .03, F(2,173) = 3.04, p = .050, and with this term in the
model, 18% of variance in certainty about voting decision was explained, F(6,173) = 6.17, p =
.000. There was a significant negative association between issue importance and certainty for
Labor partisans, b = –.22, t(173) = -2.15, p = .033, and non-significant positive associations
between issue importance and certainty for Liberal partisans, b = .09, t(1073) = .74, ns, and
neutral voters, b = .07, t(173) = .70, ns. Again, as can be seen in Figure 5, issue importance
polarized partisan voters’ certainty in their voting decision, Labor partisans feeling less certain
and Liberal partisans somewhat more certain about the vote that they made to the extent that
they had regarded the issue of defense as personally important pre-election.
____________________
Figure 5 here
____________________
Finally, analysis of confidence in the newly-elected Prime Minister, John Howard,
revealed a significant increment in explained variance at Step 1 after inclusion of political
partisanship, R
2
change = .50, F(2,178) = 87.23, p = .000. Predictably, Liberal partisans (M =
6.36) were more confident in John Howard than neutral voters (M = 4.70), and Labor partisans
(M = 3.04) were least confident of all. Issue importance added reliably to explanation of
confidence in John Howard, R
2
change = .05, F(2,176) = 9.46, p = .000. Although there was no
significant main effect of importance of the issue of immigration,
β
= –.06, t(176) = 1.11, ns,
respondents reported more confidence in John Howard to the extent that they had regarded the


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