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U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes in the Exercise of Power: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives
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U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes in the Exercise
of Power: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives
Stephen G. Walker and Akan Malici
INTRODUCTION
The catalyst for this paper is a nationally televised news conference held by President George W. Bush at the White House on 13 April 2004. At his first prime time news conference in more than a year, the President was asked to name his biggest mistake since 9/11 and what lessons he had learned since then. In his response Bush joked, “I wish you’d have given me this written question ahead of time so I could plan for it.” He then took a longer pause before adding, “I am sure something will pop into my head here in the midst of this press conference, with all the pressure of trying to come up with an answer, but it hadn’t (sic.) yet.”
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Ultimately, the President wandered in meandering style
from an affirmation of his decisions to invade Afghanistan and Iraq to his unshaken belief that the former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and would be inclined to put them to use. In the end, however, President Bush could not identify any mistakes he had made since 9/11.
Given that mistakes are nearly unavoidable facts of daily life for citizens and
politicians alike, the President’s response prompts the following question: Were his remarks simply ingenuous, a reflection of his character, or an indication of a real puzzle that needs to be investigated? In this paper we assume the third possibility, that foreign policy mistakes pose a real puzzle. We address three questions regarding this puzzle: What are foreign policy mistakes? How and why do they occur? What can be done to avoid such mistakes? Our answers to these questions center around the concept of power, or more specifically the processes of exercising power toward others and the exercise of power by others toward the self.
The systematic study of questions about mistakes is perhaps more pressing than
ever. The tight structure of the cold war with its rather well defined rules is now passé for almost two decades. More recently, the tragic events of 9/11 have introduced us to a world in which the ancient Chinese curse, “May You Live in Interesting Times,” would condemn us to a life of uncertainty, flux, and danger. The past several years certainly do qualify as interesting. Following the tragic events of 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, new security challenges are emerging. The situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate and could easily lead to another full scale war with U.S. involvement. U.S. relations with Lebanon, Syria, and Iran are troublesome indeed, and the nuclear ambitions of the Tehran regime are adding further concern. Another acute hotspot is Northeast Asia and North Korea’s achieved status as a nuclear power. Also here analysts have drawn scenarios with heavy U.S. military engagement.
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The transcript of the press conference is available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/
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| | Authors: Walker, Stephen. and Malici, Akan. |
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1
U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes in the Exercise
of Power: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives
Stephen G. Walker and Akan Malici
INTRODUCTION
The catalyst for this paper is a nationally televised news conference held by President
George W. Bush at the White House on 13 April 2004. At his first prime time news
conference in more than a year, the President was asked to name his biggest mistake
since 9/11 and what lessons he had learned since then. In his response Bush joked, “I
wish you’d have given me this written question ahead of time so I could plan for it.” He
then took a longer pause before adding, “I am sure something will pop into my head here
in the midst of this press conference, with all the pressure of trying to come up with an
answer, but it hadn’t (sic.) yet.”
1
Ultimately, the President wandered in meandering style
from an affirmation of his decisions to invade Afghanistan and Iraq to his unshaken belief
that the former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction
and would be inclined to put them to use. In the end, however, President Bush could not
identify any mistakes he had made since 9/11.
Given that mistakes are nearly unavoidable facts of daily life for citizens and
politicians alike, the President’s response prompts the following question: Were his
remarks simply ingenuous, a reflection of his character, or an indication of a real puzzle
that needs to be investigated? In this paper we assume the third possibility, that foreign
policy mistakes pose a real puzzle. We address three questions regarding this puzzle:
What are foreign policy mistakes? How and why do they occur? What can be done to
avoid such mistakes? Our answers to these questions center around the concept of power,
or more specifically the processes of exercising power toward others and the exercise of
power by others toward the self.
The systematic study of questions about mistakes is perhaps more pressing than
ever. The tight structure of the cold war with its rather well defined rules is now passé for
almost two decades. More recently, the tragic events of 9/11 have introduced us to a
world in which the ancient Chinese curse, “May You Live in Interesting Times,” would
condemn us to a life of uncertainty, flux, and danger. The past several years certainly do
qualify as interesting. Following the tragic events of 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq, new security challenges are emerging. The situation in the Middle East
continues to deteriorate and could easily lead to another full scale war with U.S.
involvement. U.S. relations with Lebanon, Syria, and Iran are troublesome indeed, and
the nuclear ambitions of the Tehran regime are adding further concern. Another acute
hotspot is Northeast Asia and North Korea’s achieved status as a nuclear power. Also
here analysts have drawn scenarios with heavy U.S. military engagement.
1
The transcript of the press conference is available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/
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