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U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes in the Exercise of Power: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives
Unformatted Document Text:  38 other traditional feature of incremental (small) change associated with the strategy of disjointed incrementalism, it is also possible to control the cost of action as well as the risk of an undesirable outcome in moving away from deadlock. Partitioning the basic strategies of Cooperation and Conflict into smaller subcategories of Words and Deeds creates new tactical categories of de-escalation (D) and escalation (E), which indicate the direction of change by each player from the status quo along a continuum anchored by Cooperation and Conflict at each end. For example, the continuum of tactical changes below includes several categories of words and deeds ordered between these anchors. The categories in the bold small font describe in more detail one of the forms of the exercise of power (Reward, Influence, Intimidate, Punish) as Words or Deeds directed by each player toward the other. The smallest tactical change in the exercise of power is to move from one category of behavior (the status quo) to an adjacent category. If the change is left-to-right, it is escalatory (E) and if it’s right-to-left, it’s de-escalatory (D). For example, if the status quo for Self is “Appeal,” then “Propose” is an incremental de-escalatory (D) change and “Oppose” is an incremental escalatory (E) change. Moves to increasingly distant non-adjacent categories define larger and larger (less incremental) changes. * * * * * * * * * * DIRECTION OF TACTICAL CHANGE De-Escalation (+) Status Quo (-) Escalation Cooperation ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Conflict DEEDS WORDS WORDS DEEDS Expand Increase Decrease Contract Promise Propose Appeal Oppose Demand Threaten Retreat Hold Advance Seize Reward Influence Intimidate Punish POSITIVE SANCTIONS NEGATIVE SANCTIONS FORMS OF THE EXERCISE OF POWER * * * * * * * * * * In order to reduce the strategic interaction model associated with sequential game theory from a single big decision to cooperate (CO) or conflict (CF), we recast the 2 x 2 strategic game matrix of Cooperation and Conflict into a 2 x 2 tactical game matrix of smaller De-escalation and Escalation decisions. It is then possible in principle to play a series of Escalatory and De-escalatory games within the cells of the larger game of Conflict and Cooperation. The initial state for a game is the status quo words or deeds for each player. The example marked below with an (x) in the middle matrix is a game of Conflict Words within the CF, CF cell of the larger game of Cooperation and Conflict.

Authors: Walker, Stephen. and Malici, Akan.
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38
other traditional feature of incremental (small) change associated with the strategy of
disjointed incrementalism, it is also possible to control the cost of action as well as the
risk of an undesirable outcome in moving away from deadlock. Partitioning the basic
strategies of Cooperation and Conflict into smaller subcategories of Words and Deeds
creates new tactical categories of de-escalation (D) and escalation (E), which indicate the
direction of change by each player from the status quo along a continuum anchored by
Cooperation and Conflict at each end.

For example, the continuum of tactical changes below includes several categories
of words and deeds ordered between these anchors. The categories in the bold small font
describe in more detail one of the forms of the exercise of power (Reward, Influence,
Intimidate, Punish) as Words or Deeds directed by each player toward the other. The
smallest tactical change in the exercise of power is to move from one category of
behavior (the status quo) to an adjacent category. If the change is left-to-right, it is
escalatory (E) and if it’s right-to-left, it’s de-escalatory (D). For example, if the status
quo for Self is “Appeal,” then “Propose” is an incremental de-escalatory (D) change and
“Oppose” is an incremental escalatory (E) change. Moves to increasingly distant non-
adjacent categories define larger and larger (less incremental) changes.
* * * * * * * * * *

DIRECTION OF TACTICAL CHANGE

De-Escalation (+) Status Quo
(-) Escalation
Cooperation ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Conflict
DEEDS
WORDS
WORDS
DEEDS
Expand Increase Decrease Contract Promise Propose Appeal Oppose Demand Threaten Retreat Hold Advance Seize
Reward
Influence
Intimidate
Punish

POSITIVE SANCTIONS
NEGATIVE SANCTIONS

FORMS OF THE EXERCISE OF POWER
* * * * * * * * * *
In order to reduce the strategic interaction model associated with sequential game
theory from a single big decision to cooperate (CO) or conflict (CF), we recast the 2 x 2
strategic game matrix of Cooperation and Conflict into a 2 x 2 tactical game matrix of
smaller De-escalation and Escalation decisions. It is then possible in principle to play a
series of Escalatory and De-escalatory games within the cells of the larger game of
Conflict and Cooperation. The initial state for a game is the status quo words or deeds for
each player. The example marked below with an (x) in the middle matrix is a game of
Conflict Words within the CF, CF cell of the larger game of Cooperation and Conflict.


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