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Un-privatizing Pensions?: the Dynamic Policy Effects of Social Security Reform in the Short, Medium and Long term
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Abstract: This paper analyzes the temporal effects of policy choices through a case study of Chile's pension system. It finds that the economic, social and political effects of policy choices changed quite dramatically over time. This study has significant implications for our understanding of temporality and politics, of the effects of market reform choices, and of policy designs more generally. It finds that our measures of "success" or "failure" of particular policies often depend on the time frame of the scholarly investigation. It also argues that the intentionality behind policy choices fades with time, limiting the usefulness of rational actor approaches in explaining outcomes in the longer term. Finally, it argues that more radical institutional changes do not necessarily "lock-in" desired policy outcomes. In fact, these transformative designs may lead to further systematic reform - often in direct opposition to reformer goals - due to the longer term effects of these policy designs.
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Abstract: This paper analyzes the temporal effects of policy choices through a case study of Chile's pension system. It finds that the economic, social and political effects of policy choices changed quite dramatically over time. This study has significant implications for our understanding of temporality and politics, of the effects of market reform choices, and of policy designs more generally. It finds that our measures of "success" or "failure" of particular policies often depend on the time frame of the scholarly investigation. It also argues that the intentionality behind policy choices fades with time, limiting the usefulness of rational actor approaches in explaining outcomes in the longer term. Finally, it argues that more radical institutional changes do not necessarily "lock-in" desired policy outcomes. In fact, these transformative designs may lead to further systematic reform - often in direct opposition to reformer goals - due to the longer term effects of these policy designs.
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