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Violent Death After Communism
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“constitutional reform; human rights protection; criminal code reform; judicial independence; the status of ethnic minority rights; and checks and balances among legislative, executive, and judicial authorities,” as well as “perceptions of corruption… and anticorruption initiatives.”
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Consider pair-wise correlations among WB and FH indicators and purposeful death rates for 1991-2002 for FH Political Rights and Civil Liberties scores, and 1996-2002 for the remaining indicators, reported in Table 4. That various measures of progress with regards to political liberalization and democratization are not at all correlated with progress in managing violent death is less surprising perhaps, than a corresponding lack of a nexus between the rule of law and non-violent order, between the legal order and public order. The ex-Soviet countries that the World Bank and Freedom House diagnose as poor performers with regard to ROL are not those with the most severe violent death problems. Noteworthy is not only the lack of correlation between the purposeful death rate and any indicator of “progress,” but also the strikingly high and significant correlation between each pairing of the WB and FH indicators.
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Table 4. Pair-wise Correlation between Purposeful Death Rates, World Bank Governance Indicators, 1996-2002, and Freedom House Scores, 1991-2002.
PDR
PDR,
Adj.
WB V
& A
WB
Pol
Stab
WB
RoL
WB
Gov
Effect
WB Reg
Qual
WB
Corrup
FH Pol
Rts
FH Civ
Rts
FH
RoL
PDR
1.00
PDR,
Adj.
.97***
1.00
WB
V&A
.26***
.20**
1.00
WB
Pol
Stab
.28***
.25***
.52***
1.00
WB
RoL
.24**
.19*
.91***
.70***
1.00
WB
Gov
Effect
.27***
.25***
.91***
.64***
.93***
1.00
WB Reg
Qual
.29***
.26***
.87***
.52***
.88***
.89***
1.00
WB
Corrup
.24**
.19*
.82**
.65***
.90***
.88***
.76***
1.00
FH Pol
Rts
-.19**
-.08
-.95
***
-.52
***
-.87
***
-.84
***
-.81
***
-.78
***
1.00
FH Civ -.19*
-.09
-.95
***
-.54
***
-.89
***
-.90
***
-.90
***
-.80
***
.90***
1.00
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Freedom House 2003 Nations in Transit p xii.
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At least one other study have found a similar lack of statistical correlation between intentional homicides
and rule of law and corruption indices; the authors suggest that this might be explained by their high correlation “with other important explanatory variables in the regression, namely, per capita GNP, the Gini index, and the measures of educational stand.” Fajnzybler, Pablo et. al. 1998. Determinants of Crime Rates in Latin America and the World: An Empirical Assessment. World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies: Washington, DC. Since the present analysis is performed on a smaller set of states, which “naturally” controls for many factors such as education, and it has been carried out without the potentially correlative explanatory variables, the conclusion of non-correlation is much less ambiguous here.
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“constitutional reform; human rights protection; criminal code reform; judicial
independence; the status of ethnic minority rights; and checks and balances among
legislative, executive, and judicial authorities,” as well as “perceptions of corruption…
and anticorruption initiatives.”
Consider pair-wise correlations among WB and FH indicators and purposeful death rates
for 1991-2002 for FH Political Rights and Civil Liberties scores, and 1996-2002 for the
remaining indicators, reported in Table 4. That various measures of progress with
regards to political liberalization and democratization are not at all correlated with
progress in managing violent death is less surprising perhaps, than a corresponding lack
of a nexus between the rule of law and non-violent order, between the legal order and
public order. The ex-Soviet countries that the World Bank and Freedom House diagnose
as poor performers with regard to ROL are not those with the most severe violent death
problems. Noteworthy is not only the lack of correlation between the purposeful death
rate and any indicator of “progress,” but also the strikingly high and significant
correlation between each pairing of the WB and FH indicators.
Table 4. Pair-wise Correlation between Purposeful Death Rates, World Bank
Governance Indicators, 1996-2002, and Freedom House Scores, 1991-2002.
PDR
PDR,
Adj.
WB V
& A
WB
Pol
Stab
WB
RoL
WB
Gov
Effect
WB
Reg
Qual
WB
Corrup
FH Pol
Rts
FH Civ
Rts
FH
RoL
PDR
1.00
PDR,
Adj.
.97***
1.00
WB
V&A
.26***
.20**
1.00
WB
Pol
Stab
.28***
.25***
.52***
1.00
WB
RoL
.24**
.19*
.91***
.70***
1.00
WB
Gov
Effect
.27***
.25***
.91***
.64***
.93***
1.00
WB
Reg
Qual
.29***
.26***
.87***
.52***
.88***
.89***
1.00
WB
Corrup
.24**
.19*
.82**
.65***
.90***
.88***
.76***
1.00
FH Pol
Rts
-.19**
-.08
-.95
***
-.52
***
-.87
***
-.84
***
-.81
***
-.78
***
1.00
FH Civ -.19*
-.09
-.95
***
-.54
***
-.89
***
-.90
***
-.90
***
-.80
***
.90***
1.00
53
Freedom House 2003 Nations in Transit p xii.
54
At least one other study have found a similar lack of statistical correlation between intentional homicides
and rule of law and corruption indices; the authors suggest that this might be explained by their high
correlation “with other important explanatory variables in the regression, namely, per capita GNP, the Gini
index, and the measures of educational stand.” Fajnzybler, Pablo et. al. 1998. Determinants of Crime Rates
in Latin America and the World: An Empirical Assessment. World Bank Latin American and Caribbean
Studies: Washington, DC. Since the present analysis is performed on a smaller set of states, which
“naturally” controls for many factors such as education, and it has been carried out without the potentially
correlative explanatory variables, the conclusion of non-correlation is much less ambiguous here.
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