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A Cross-national Comparative Study of the Policy Effects of Referendums
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When we introduce a simple dummy for the effect of referendums, we find a
positive though statistically not significant effect. This also holds if we estimatethe effect of referendums in the switching regression model. For the variablesproposed by Botero, Djankov, Porta, Lopez-De-Silanes and Shleifer (2004, 1367)we find slightly different results. While they find a statistically significant posi-tive effect for the log of GNP per capita, we find a negative, though statisticallyinsignificant effect. On the other hand none of the legal origin variables has astatistically significant effect, with the coefficient for scandinavian origin almostreaching a standard level of significance as in Botero, Djankov, Porta, Lopez-De-Silanes and Shleifer (2004, 1367). These results fail to change once we introduceour preference measure and the referendum dummy as additional independentvariables. Also the effect of these two variables does not change compared tothe previous models. When we estimate this basic model (without additionalpolitical variables) in a switching regression, however, we find a much strength-ened, statistically significant negative effect for referendums, as we would expectaccording to theoretical models. This gives credence to the argument that theeffect of referendums cannot always be detected in a simple linear regressionmodel with a dichotomous indicator for the presence of referendums. When weintroduce the other political variables, this effect for the referendum indicatordisappears, however. Hence, this lacking robustness of the effect of referendumsrequires further investigation.
In part a dataset covering a broader set of countries, namely the European
Values Study Group and Association (2006) survey of 1999, allows us to do thisin part. In this survey the following question allows us again to construct apreference measure to explain the benefits in old age etc.:
Now I’d like you to tell me your views on various issues. How wouldyou place your views on this scale?: 1 Individuals should take moreresponsibility for providing for themselves - 10 The state should takemore responsibility to ensure that everyone is provided for.(EuropeanValues Study Group and Association, 2006)
While this question is slightly more specific than the one we previously used,
it is not directly related to benefits in old age etc. Nevertheless, given the way thevariable is coded, we would expect a negative effect for this preference variableon old age benefits.
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| | Authors: Hug, Simon. and Gilland Lutz, Karin. |
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When we introduce a simple dummy for the effect of referendums, we find a
positive though statistically not significant effect. This also holds if we estimate
the effect of referendums in the switching regression model. For the variables
proposed by Botero, Djankov, Porta, Lopez-De-Silanes and Shleifer (2004, 1367)
we find slightly different results. While they find a statistically significant posi-
tive effect for the log of GNP per capita, we find a negative, though statistically
insignificant effect. On the other hand none of the legal origin variables has a
statistically significant effect, with the coefficient for scandinavian origin almost
reaching a standard level of significance as in Botero, Djankov, Porta, Lopez-De-
Silanes and Shleifer (2004, 1367). These results fail to change once we introduce
our preference measure and the referendum dummy as additional independent
variables. Also the effect of these two variables does not change compared to
the previous models. When we estimate this basic model (without additional
political variables) in a switching regression, however, we find a much strength-
ened, statistically significant negative effect for referendums, as we would expect
according to theoretical models. This gives credence to the argument that the
effect of referendums cannot always be detected in a simple linear regression
model with a dichotomous indicator for the presence of referendums. When we
introduce the other political variables, this effect for the referendum indicator
disappears, however. Hence, this lacking robustness of the effect of referendums
requires further investigation.
In part a dataset covering a broader set of countries, namely the European
Values Study Group and Association (2006) survey of 1999, allows us to do this
in part. In this survey the following question allows us again to construct a
preference measure to explain the benefits in old age etc.:
Now I’d like you to tell me your views on various issues. How would
you place your views on this scale?: 1 Individuals should take more
responsibility for providing for themselves - 10 The state should take
more responsibility to ensure that everyone is provided for.(European
Values Study Group and Association, 2006)
While this question is slightly more specific than the one we previously used,
it is not directly related to benefits in old age etc. Nevertheless, given the way the
variable is coded, we would expect a negative effect for this preference variable
on old age benefits.
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